Special Dispatch Europe | Preview 2026
Clean Energy Wire’s authors in Warsaw, Brussels, Zadar and Milan, as well as those in the CLEW newsroom in Berlin, weigh in on their expectations for the biggest climate and energy stories in 2026.
Money and climate talks expected to take the limelight in the EU in 2026
In Brussels, 2026 will be dominated by EU budget negotiations, and how much is allocated to the green transition. Known in Brussels jargon as the MFF – the Multiannual Financial Framework – the EU budget is set for a seven-year period and defines the maximum spending levels (“ceilings”) for each major category of expenditure (“headings”). The next MFF will cover the years 2028–2034.
The European Commission put forward a draft budget on 16 July of almost 2 trillion euros in commitment, the equivalent of 1.15 percent of the EU’s gross national income (GNI). It earmarks 630 billion euros for climate and environmental action, roughly 35 percent of total spending. The current EU budget allocates 30 percent to climate action and 10 percent to the environment. The months-long negotiations among member states and in the European Parliament are likely to be marked by intense political battles, as EU budget debates are widely regarded as among the most challenging in European policymaking.
After the European Parliament and the EU Council – the EU institution that represents the 27 member states – finally agreed on a 2040 climate target on 9 December, the EU must update its rules and regulations accordingly.
A new set of laws to achieve a binding 90-percent net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, informally termed the “Fit for 90” package in Brussels, is expected in the second half of 2026, a senior Commission official said. The package would update key climate policies, including the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), while introducing stronger incentives for renewables, electrification, biomethane, and green technologies. A major focus will be integrating permanent carbon removals into the ETS and the use of international carbon credits.
2026 opportunity for Polish government to deliver on climate and energy policy promises
by Patryk Strzałkowski | Warsaw
2026 might just be a year Poland starts to deliver on the green transition. With the 2025 presidential campaign over and no other election planned until 2027, Donald Tusk’s government now has the time to deliver on its promises, before priorities shift to campaign mode.
The challenges are many: long overdue strategic documents (like the EU-mandated national climate and energy plan NECP), lagging transition in the buildings sector, the implementation of Fit for 55, and the looming ETS2 (which the government wants to reform).
While household energy subsidies are ending, support for cost-burdened industry and boosts to competitiveness will be another major issue. But there is also visible progress: in 2026 the first Polish offshore wind farms will start producing electricity, and we could soon see the share of coal in annual electricity generation fall below 50 percent.
The government's job will not be made easier by Karol Nawrocki, the new right-wing president. His powers are fairly limited, with one major exception: he can veto any bill. And as the first months of his term have shown, Nawrocki intends to be far more active than most of his predecessors. He has already vetoed more bills than any president in a similar period (including important wind farm legislation), and also proposed his own bills (one aiming to cut household energy costs, for example).
Now the government must either compromise with the president on issues like onshore wind or biomethane, or find ways to implement planned reforms without changing legislation.
Urgent energy transition decisions pile up in Germany as regional elections loom
Germany’s government will be forced to spell out in detail how it plans to continue the energy transition in 2026 and beyond. The coalition has postponed many key decisions since taking office in spring, as it clearly prioritised industry competitiveness over climate action. But an upcoming string of state elections could further complicate energy and climate policymaking. Two western states will head to the polls in March, but the September votes in the country’s east draw most of the attention because the right-wing extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD) is currently leading the polls in two states.
The government must present a Climate Action Programme detailing steps to reach its 2030 and 2040 emission reduction targets in different economic sectors by March, with transport and heating being the main laggards. The coalition must also update its renewable energy support framework to bring it in line with new EU rules. The reform will also include proposals for new renewable expansion volumes – a particular focus after economy ministry suggestions they might need to slow the pace of expansion.
Industry is also keenly awaiting the first tenders for building gas-fired power plants as a backup for renewables. The government said auctions for plants with a combined capacity of 10 gigawatts will take place next year, with more to follow thereafter. The country’s chief energy transition advisors this week urged sufficient backup, so Germany’s coal exit can proceed – the government will officially review the status of the phaseout in August, and has yet to present a report that was due by 2022.
Last but not least, the government is due to present its overhaul of the existing plan for the transition to climate-friendly heating. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservatives heavily attacked the existing rules introduced by the previous government and pledged to abolish them. But many experts believe the country’s climate targets will only allow cosmetic changes to the Building Energy Act (GEG). The coalition has already promised a new name: the Building Modernisation Act.
France nears agreement on 2035 energy plan, but much remains to be solved
by Juliette Portala | Brussels
After a more than two-year delay, France’s multiannual energy programme may finally see the light of day, charting the path for decarbonising its economy, sector by sector, from 2026. Prime minister Sébastien Lecornu said that he wants “to make decisions by Christmas,” without specifying whether or not a draft would be put to a vote. Some observers believe that he could try to enact a watered-down version of it by decree to take the heat out of discussions, even though the debate between proponents of nuclear power and renewables advocates is far from resolved.
“The multiannual energy plan is ready, everyone knows that,” Agnès-Pannier Runacher, former ecological transition minister, said in the French National Assembly. “Its publication isn’t being delayed due to technical adjustments, but by the stances of certain political groups which, driven by ideology, pit nuclear power against renewable energies.”
The roadmap is meant to guide France’s move away from fossil fuels and electrification of energy uses through to 2035.
Meanwhile, the new regulatory framework for selling state-owned utility firm EDF’s electricity to competitors based on revenue-sharing and consumer protection, will enter into effect in January, despite failing to win unanimous support. The French government has also entrusted former EDF chief Jean-Bernard Lévy with a mission to help it rethink public support to renewables, and whose outcomes are expected early next year. France will implement new electricity market reforms as part of broad EU-wide changes from 2026, including changes in the integration of renewables into grid operations and grid tariff reforms for energy storage.
Will Italy’s bet on biofuels end in a win?
After intense local elections, the government of prime minister Giorgia Meloni is looking forward to a year of relative stability to roll out its plans, until national elections spell choppy waters again in 2027.
Italy continues to be one of the late movers on electric vehicles, but the Meloni government has chosen to turn this delay into a strategy: pushing biofuels produced from plant biomass as an alternative to electrification. Environment minister Pichetto Fratin has described them as “an Italian intuition”. This strategy is not without its critics. Cars running on biofuels still emit carbon dioxide.
Italy is also investing in converting refineries into biorefineries: in 2026 the conversion of Eni’s Livorno oil refinery will be completed, and production will be expanded at Porto Marghera (Venice) and Gela. The goal, with the planned opening of two more plants (Sannazzaro de’ Burgondi and Priolo), is to exceed five million tons per year of biorefining capacity by 2030. Think tank Transport & Environment has warned of a technological and industrial “lock‑in” around the fossil system from the use of biofuels.
Another defining story of 2026 will be how new data centres reshape Italy’s energy system. The national grid operator Terna has received grid-connection requests from data centres amounting to over 60 gigawatt (GW), though only a share of that pipeline will ever turn into real electricity demand. Around two-thirds of the planned capacity is concentrated in a single region, Lombardy, where Microsoft, Amazon, and Italian energy heavyweights Eni and A2A are all planning new hubs, prompting regional authorities to take the issue directly to Rome.
The other big question is whether the rollout of renewables can keep pace with this surge in demand. Terna has put a 23 billion euro grid reinforcement plan on the table for 2025–2034, yet the expansion of solar and wind slowed in 2025, with newly installed capacity 10 percent lower compared to the previous year, after two years of rapid growth.
Croatia’s 2026 energy outlook: Nuclear ambitions rise as solar rules change
In 2026, Croatia’s energy landscape will likely be shaped by debates on the green transition and a renewed focus on nuclear energy.
The government intensified discussions on building its own nuclear power plant, and 2026 will be marked by further legislative steps. The government and energy experts will continue assessing the feasibility of new nuclear capacities within Croatia, with potential sites including Ivanić Grad, Erdut and the Plomin power plant area, as well as exploring Croatia’s participation in constructing the second unit of the Krško nuclear power plant in cooperation with Slovenia.
A significant regulatory shift will come with the entry into force of new rules under the Renewable Energy and High-Efficiency Cogeneration Act. From 1 January 2026, net metering will be abolished and replaced with net billing, meaning that households with rooftop solar will sell surplus electricity at a lower rate, reducing profitability for users with substantial excess production. The amendments also formally recognise energy cooperatives as an official model of citizen participation, enabling collective organisation and shared energy production.
