CLEW Guide – Poland's govt yet to deliver on energy transition promises

• Since the October 2023 parliamentary elections, Poland has been led by a broad, pro-European centre left to centre right coalition. The government, headed by former European Council president Donald Tusk, is made up of Tusk’s Civic Coalition (156 seats of 460), the Third Way alliance (65) and the Left alliance (21). It has pledged to accelerate the country’s energy transition. However, over a year and a half later it still has not delivered much in terms of legislation or new initiatives. A partial update to the National Energy and Climate Plan (mandated by the EU) has been presented and was the subject of public consultation. Although climate-focused NGOs welcomed the release of the plan, they criticised Poland’s hesitance to choose a more ambitious reform path in an open letter to the climate ministry. Even though Poland is almost a year late with the update, the government says it’s still working on the final version and will send it to Brussels in June 2025.
• Poland was responsible for just under 11 percent of the EU’s total GHG emissions in 2023. Carbon emissions have fallen over 30 percent since peaking in the 1980s. Most of the reductions occurred in the 1990s during the fall of communism and the shift from an industrial planned economy. Emission levels have not changed significantly since 2001. Poland's current greenhouse gas emission reduction target in the EU for 2030 (for domestic transport, buildings, agriculture, small industry and waste) is 17.7 percent compared to 2005. It is far less than in countries like Germany or Denmark (50%), but Poland's total emissions in 2022 were just two percent below 2005 levels.
• In the past years, Poland saw a significant drop in the share of coal in its electricity mix, from 70 percent in 2022 to about 57 percent in 2024. In the same year, the country increased its share of electricity generated from renewables by 2.3 points, to 29.6 percent. In April 2025, for the first time, coal generated less than half of Poland’s electricity in a month. But even with the rise in renewables, coal remains the main source of electricity throughout the year. Poland’s power sector has the highest carbon intensity in the European Union, making the coal phase-out a key challenge. Moreover, Poland is the only country in the EU that does not have an official date for ending coal power use. The country’s energy sector is dominated by big, state-owned or partially state-owned companies, like the oil corporation Orlen or Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE), an energy company that owns coal plants and mines.

• Poland has managed to diversify its gas, oil and coal supplies, after being heavily reliant on imports from Russia. In 2023, subsidies were put in place to keep gas and electricity prices down - but this cost the state tens of billions of euros. The government has extended the price freeze for households until September 2025. After peaking in 2023, the wholesale price for energy has fallen and stabilised in 2024 (though at a level significantly above pre-2022 prices).

• Air pollution is a major public health concern, fuelled not just by cars, but also by furnaces, as no other EU country uses nearly as much coal for heating.

• The burden of coal – Coal power is the heaviest burden on Poland’s energy transition. The previous government said that Poland would be the last EU country to use coal for power generation well into the 2040s. With ageing plants and subsidies secured for just the next few years, many coal plants will face closure earlier than planned, possibly threatening Poland with a power generation gap. The new coalition government pledged to accelerate the deployment of renewables which, if realised, would make the need for coal marginal around the late 2030s. More than a year after taking power, however, it still failed to deliver much of the legislation that would facilitate achieving this ambition. Just transition plans have been drawn up for coal regions, but not all of them will receive EU funding – the lignite mine in the region of Turów was not approved for support as coal extraction is planned to continue until 2044. Over a year into a new government in the office there are signs that Poland aims at prolonging the capacity market support for coal beyond 2030 and is going to invest in natural gas generation as an interim solution. Extraction at the open-cast lignite mine at Bełchatów, the largest such facility in Europe, is to be finished in the 2030s. Until then, the mine will receive funding. With a rising CO2 price in the EU ETS, coal is driving up electricity prices.
• Battery power-house — Poland is not among the EU’s leading car producers, but there is a sector that stands to gain from the transition to electric vehicles: battery production. In April 2023, Poland overtook the U.S. as the country with the second largest lithium-ion battery production capacity in the world. The sector sees the rise of EVs and energy storage as a huge opportunity. But a BloombergNEF projection sees Poland falling behind the U.S., Germany, Hungary and Sweden by 2027. New EU rules on carbon footprint could also put factories in Poland at a disadvantage.
• Going nuclear – Poland has not been able to successfully build a nuclear power plant, despite ongoing efforts since the 1970s. The first initiative from 1971 made it to the construction phase, but collapsed with the fall of communism and protests. A newer project, which began in 2009, became stuck in an early phase. Now is the furthest any nuclear project has come since the fall of communism, with the U.S. firm Westinghouse as technological partner. While 2033 was the official opening date initially planned, 2035 now looks more realistic. In February 2025, the Polish parliament approved over 60 billion zloty (14.5 billion US dollars, the funding's currency) for the plant’s development, which would cover around 30 percent of the projected total costs. The rest is expected to come from foreign borrowing. Willingness to provide such borrowing – up to $17.1 million - was expressed by U.S. Export-Import Bank and US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) which considers providing $1 billion in financing. Poland is also working on selecting a second location for another nuclear power plant and plans to announce the decision until the end of 2025. There are talks to include French EDF in a project in Bełchatów. Another public-private project being considered is a partnership with the Korean firm KHNP. State oil company Orlen is planning to build two Small Modular Reactor (SMR) units by 2035.
• Wind of change – Wind power development has stalled in recent years with the passing of unfavourable legislation. In March, the government approved a bill that aims to create more favourable conditions for onshore wind expansion. The bill is in parliament now to be assessed by the special subcomitee inside State Assets, Energy and Climate Committee. Per a draft of its climate plan, Poland could double its onshore wind capacity between 2024 and 2030. Meanwhile, the European Commission has accepted the use of 194 million euros in funding to build a terminal to facilitate the construction and servicing of offshore wind farms in the city of Gdańsk. In early 2025, construction begun on Baltic Power, the first offshore wind farm in Polish waters, with a capacity of 1.2 GW. The second offshore project will be built by state-owned energy firm PGE and Denmark’s Ørsted with a planned capacity of nearly 1.5 GW. In May, Poland’s biggest private energy company, Polenergia, also announced plans to build two offshore wind farms, with an expected combined capacity of 1.4 GW.
• Solar boom — Solar PV in Poland exploded from a marginal capacity in 2018 to over 19,5 GW by August 2024, having supplied 8.7 percent of electricity in 2023 (up from 5.7% in 2022) with both rooftop solar and utility-scale projects. However, this has pushed the outdated electricity grid to its limits, leading to thousands of projects being denied grid connection due to outdated regulations or just too much electricity for the grid to cope with.
• Poland has assumed EU Council presidency - On 1 January 2025, Poland took over the six-month rotating presidency of the EU Council. Security is the main priority of Polish presidency. It is also arguing for quitting all fossil fuels imports from Russia.
• Heating in peril – Sixteen million Poles are keeping their homes warm in winter with district heating, the largest number of district heating customers among all EU countries. The vast majority of district heating systems use coal and are considered inefficient. Experts say the sector is “underinvested, outdated and unprofitable,” with customers bearing the brunt of rising costs. In May 2024, Poland opened its first heating plant based on 100-percent renewable sources. It was, built with government support, using solar, heat pumps and heat storage. In March 2025, EU member states agreed with Poland's proposition of allocating an additional 30 percent of free emission allowances for district heating, a decision hailed by the Climate Ministry as success of Poland's EU presidency.
• Clean(er) air – Poland’s struggle with high air pollution has for years focused on heating, but now it is also starting to tackle cars. As of June 2024, Warsaw had the first Clean Transport Zone (Strefa czystego transportu - SCT) in the country. The city will gradually ban older cars (especially diesel-powered ones) from its centre. There will be, however, numerous exemptions. For example, the ban will not apply to the city’s residents until 2028. Cracow, infamous in Poland for its smog levels, was the first to agree on a Clean Transport Zone, but the bill was overturned by a court on formal grounds.

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