Dispatch from France | December '24

*** For a bird’s-eye view of the country’s climate-friendly transition, read our ‘Guide to France.’ ***

Stories to watch in the weeks ahead

• Budget bug – With France facing a record public debt that is set to rise until at least 2029, the government aimed to drastically cut costs in its 2025 budget bill, hoping to bring the deficit down to five percent of the country’s GDP in 2025 and to three percent by 2027. The deficit is expected to reach 6.1 percent this year. To achieve its new fiscal targets, the government had decided on a 60-billion-euro budget squeeze, two-thirds of which would come from reduced spending. But prime minister Michel Barnier, who wanted parliament to adopt the bill by the end of December, was in for a rough ride, as his plans drew heavy criticism from left-wing lawmakers and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN). After preparing the ground on French TV for the controversial Article 49.3, which allows bills to pass without a vote – like president Emmanuel Macron had done in 2023 to push through a pensions reform – the prime minister in early December invoked it, leaving no other option to lawmakers but to oust him in a no-confidence vote. The French government has collapsed, and Macron is deciding for Barnier’s successor. The president, however, ruled out resigning himself, calling opponents irresponsible and power hungry.
  
• Taxes on top – Among the planned tax revenues in next year’s budget , the government had included higher taxes on airline tickets and private jets – which was not welcomed by airlines and pilots – as well as stricter penalties on the most polluting vehicles. Barnier, who had also aimed at collecting 3.4 billion euros by raising the tax on electricity, finally dropped his plans to prevent a political crisis as pressure from opposition parties kept growing. The French government had also been thinking of replacing its regulated nuclear electricity tariff (ARENH) by taxing utility firm EDF’s revenues from the wholesale of its nuclear power output after the current system expires at the end of 2025. Although the government in October had ended speculations around gas tax hikes following contradictory statements from ecological transition minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher, the senate in late November voted for a tax that could raise 1.2 billion euros.
• Nuclear under water – Despite being bogged down in the construction of a reactor at Flamanville, the French government invited citizens to express their views on the building of two new nuclear reactors at the Gravelines power plant on the English Channel by 2035. According to Greenpeace France, the site is too vulnerable to rising sea levels and the project is “against all scientific logic.”

The latest from France – last month in recap

• Mercosur, surely not – Farmers once again took to the streets in France to express their opposition to the free trade deal that is being negotiated between the European Union and five South American  ‘Mercosur’ countries that form a joint trade bloc. Leading French farming unions called for more protests across all regions, explaining that a massive influx of products from South America, where health and environmental standards are lower and labour is cheaper, would pose a threat to their competitiveness – or, as some of their banners summarise it: “Let’s not import what we forbid in France.” Most of the French political class is also opposed to the deal, with Barnier denouncing in November “the disastrous impact that this agreement would have on entire sectors, particularly agriculture and livestock farming.” Before its collapse, the government had hoped that the European Commission would introduce binding environmental measures in line with the Paris Climate Agreement and incorporate mirror clauses to prevent unfair competition, or was ready to rally a blocking minority to halt its ratification.
• Green transition strategy – After handing the European Commission its national climate and energy plan (PNEC) post-deadline, the French government in October introduced its first multiannual financing strategy for the green transition (SPAFTE), in which it calls for public and private low-carbon investments to increase by 110 billion euros per year by 2030. The plan includes supporting the deployment of electric cars, energy efficiency in the real estate sector, and industrial decarbonisation. Meanwhile, the third national low-carbon strategy (SNBC) and the third multiannual energy programme (PPE) remain open to public consultation until 15 December.
• Changing climate – While the French government was busy discussing the country’s finances, manifestations of changing weather patterns were observed across many regions of the country, particularly in the centre-east and the south. Between 16 and 20 October, France designated nearly 400 towns as natural disaster zones: due to exceptional floods, more than a thousand people had to be evacuated and many more faced power outages. Rail lines and schools were also damaged or closed. According to the public insurance fund CCR, the damage caused by heavy precipitation on 17 and 18 October ranged between 350 and 420 million euros.

Juliette’s picks – highlights from upcoming events and top reads

• Just this once, I invite you to go back in time and find out what Barnier had in mind for France’s environmental future in 1990. French newspaper Le Monde wrote at the time that the environmental report the former deputy had prepared for the government was providing “proof that ecology has fully entered the institutions of the Republic.”

• Barnier’s budget bill is no longer relevant, but the question remains: will the green transition be sacrificed for the sake of the economy? Macron said that his five-year term “would be ecological or would not be.” For journalist Matthieu Croissandeau, one of the guests who discussed the topic on French parliamentary news channel Public Sénat in November, France might soon have to issue an amber alert for ecology – unless the next prime minister takes a much bolder stance, that is.