CLEW Guide – Government turmoil casts doubt over France's transition progress
With its “CLEW Guide” series, the Clean Energy Wire newsroom and contributors from across Europe are providing journalists with a bird's-eye view of the climate-friendly transition from key countries and the bloc as a whole. You can also sign up to the weekly newsletter here to receive our "Dispatch from..." – weekly updates from Germany, France, Italy, Croatia, Poland and the EU on the need-to-know about the continent’s move to climate neutrality.
Content:
*** Please note: You can find a full dossier exploring Franco-German approaches to climate and energy policy and effects on the EU here.***
Key background
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François Bayrou replaced Michel Barnier as France's prime minister on 13 December 2024. Under his government, the word “climate” has disappeared from the title of the Minister for Ecological Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher. The subject of energy, which was her responsibility, has now been entrusted to the Ministry of the Economy and Finance. Bayrou’s general policy speech on 14 January was judged by many analysts to be extremely weak on ecological and climate issues. His predecessor Barnier – a pro-nuclear policy advocate and wind power critic from the conservative The Republicans (LR) party – had been appointed prime minister on 5 September but did not last long, with his government collapsing two months later over a budget row. Bayrou's new government managed to adopt a new budget in February 2025 by decree and survived a following vote of no-confidence despite lingering objections to the government's financial planning.
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French president Emmanuel Macron had called snap parliamentary elections for early July 2024, in the wake of his party's defeat in the European vote on 9 June. The first snap election in more than 25 years took many of the president’s political allies and enemies in France and Europe by surprise and opened the door to what could have become the country’s first far-right government led by the populist Rassemblement National (RN) party. However, RN only came in 3rd, while a new alliance on the left (New Popular Front) came in first, which is in favour of the ecological and climatic transition, although their leaders can be divided on the means and in particular the role of nuclear power.
- France, like all other EU member states, is heavily reliant on fossil fuels, which accounted for almost half of its primary energy consumption in 2023, with oil accounting for 30 percent and natural gas for 13 percent. Coal plays a minor role. Nuclear energy accounted for about 40 percent, renewables for 16 percent. Primary energy production in 2023 was 13.3 percent higher than in 2022, due in particular to the rebound in nuclear production. Energy-related CO2 emissions have fallen (-5.9%), mainly due to a very significant drop in the consumption of fossil fuels, particularly natural gas. Primary production of renewable electricity rose sharply (+27.4%), due to a significant increase in installed capacity and more favourable weather conditions.
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According to the French environment ministry’s independent emissions reporting organisation Citepa, the country reduced its greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 by 4.8 percent compared to 2022. The energy sector saw a drop in emissions following “a return to normal” with the recommissioning of temporarily closed nuclear power plants bringing an additional 41.5 TWh to the grid and, to a lesser extent, thanks to higher hydro (+9.2 TWh) as well as wind and solar power generation (+15.2 TWh for the two sources combined).
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In 2023, France's primary energy production increased by 13 percent compared to the previous year, making it a net exporter of electricity. The increased energy production came about thanks to a recovery in nuclear power generation and a surge in renewable energy. After being Europe's largest net power importer in 2022 on the back of unstable nuclear output, France became the biggest net exporter in 2023, showing its role as a key electricity producer in the 27-member bloc. With 89 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity exports in 2024, France beat its previous all-time record of 77 TWh set in 2002. But the rise in renewable installations means that nuclear's share of installed power generation capacity has fallen below 40 percent
- With around two thirds of France’s electricity being produced by nuclear power, the emissions intensity of the country’s energy sector is lower than those of several other European countries, such as Germany.
- A combination of infrastructural issues at its nuclear power plants and the energy crisis pushed the government to move ahead with legislation to quicken the deployment of renewables and accelerate the construction of new nuclear reactors. In January 2024, the French government said that the country needed to build more than 14 new nuclear plants – compared to the six planned so far. EDF has said that each could be built within 6 years.
- In September 2023, the government unveiled its ecological planning strategy with a view to reducing the country’s emissions based on sufficiency, energy efficiency measures, and the deployment of nuclear and renewable energy. That includes the promise to increase annual public funding from the national budget to finance the transition to a total of 40 billion euros in 2024, and the pledge to end coal power by 2027.
- The roadmaps which together constitute France’s future energy and climate strategy – that is to say its low-carbon national strategy (SNBC), the PPE 2024-2035, the new planning law (LPEC) and the country’s adaptation plan to climate change (PNACC) – were expected to be adopted mid-2024. In October 2024, Michel Barnier eventually presented the French government's first multi-year strategy for financing the ecological transition (Spafte). However, its national low-carbon strategy must still be updated. The government came under fire when it said that it would postpone the inclusion of renewable energy goals in its proposals.
- Experts found that France’s renewable deployment pace was too slow to meet EU rules. EU energy commissioner Kadri Simson urged France in February 2024 to “significantly raise its ambition on renewable energy sources to at least 44 percent” regarding gross final energy consumption by 2030 and specify clear targets in its National Climate and Energy Plan.
- The fallout from the massive blackout which hit Spain, Portugal and parts of southern France shows no sign of abating. The rapid growth of wind and solar power in France – coupled with stagnating demand for electricity in the country – is increasingly raising concerns over grid stability and potential negative prices in the future. This has prompted calls from experts and politicians to moderate the development of renewables or even stop their rollout.
- Launched in 2021, the country’s 54-billion-euro investment plan, France 2030, aims at improving the competitiveness of its industry, encourage investments and innovation and support the low-carbon transition, amid other priorities. The government plans to invest half of its France 2030 programme aimed at improving its industrial competitiveness for the energy and ecological transition mainly to decarbonise its economy. According to a survey by Business France, the nation maintained last year its economic attractiveness to international investors, who poured money into 205 projects that directly aimed at decarbonising its economy.
- France adopted a green industry bill in autumn, which aims at increasing finance for the green industry, facilitate and accelerate the setup of new industries, and develop brownfield sites, as well as making public procurement greener. A green industry investment tax credit (C3IV) was also created as part of the package.
- Following a series of heatwaves, floods, wildfires and droughts in recent years, France rebooted its climate change impacts adaptation strategy to include proposals for adaptation to 4 degrees Celsius of warming, the sign that the government is ready to prepare for the worst.
Major transition stories
- Fossil fuels – According to data by French NGOs Data for Good and Éclaircies, France is Europe’s largest supporter of “carbon bomb” extraction projects, and – with 154 billion dollars – behind only China and the United States globally.
- Climate protests – Climate protests in France have been deemed more radical than in neighbouring countries, , especially violent protests over megabasins in early 2023. The top French court however cancelled in November the dissolution of environmental activist group “Les Soulèvements de la Terre,” which the government had previously ordered over “eco-terrorism” claims. Plans for drilling eight new oil wells in the Gironde region triggered new protests.
- Energy sufficiency – Following on from national efforts to save energy and avoid power cuts during the winter 2022, the government proposed an energy sobriety plan across all sectors to ensure further savings (e.g. higher penalties for high-emitting vehicles, speed reductions on highways, or limiting interior temperatures in buildings). However, France cut 1 billion euros of funds from an energy-sufficiency renovation scheme in early 2024.
- Sustainable finance – In October 2023, French legislators backed away from compulsory “Say on Climate” measures which were part of the government’s green industry bill adopted in autumn and would have made France the first country worldwide to require listed companies to consult their shareholders on their climate strategies through such resolutions.
Sector overview
Energy
- The sector is responsible for about 11 percent of total GHG emissions.
- In 2023, the electricity mix was made up of almost 92 percent decarbonised production (65% nuclear, 15% solar and wind, 12% hydro). (Here you can find electricity production by sector in real time.)
- After recording historic losses due to numerous shutdowns at its nuclear plants that sent France’s output to a 33-year low in 2022, state-owned utility firm EDF bounced back with a 10-billion-euro net profit in 2023, fuelled by a substantial hike in nuclear generation.
- Former French energy minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher’s new European alliance of nuclear countries could together have a nuclear power plant capacity of up to 150 GW capacity by 2050. France, which signed in January a long-term nuclear cooperation deal with Sweden to facilitate the construction of new reactors, reiterated calls for the EU executive to put nuclear power on an equal footing with renewables in the bloc’s policies at a time when the country plans to build at least six new reactors. At home, utility firm EDF and the government reached a deal that will allow the group to sell its nuclear power at around 70 euros/MWh after the existing 42 euros/MWh Arenh rate expires in 2026.
- In November 2023, the the now-collapsed Barnier government opened its draft energy and climate roadmap to public consultation. On 10 July, 2024, the government officially transmitted the final update of its National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) to the European Commission. Among the main points, France plans the phase out of fossil fuels. The last coal-fired power plant will be closed or converted to low-carbon solutions by 2027. France aims to reduce overall fossil fuel consumption by a factor of 2 by 2030 and 3 by 2035 compared to 2012.
- France’s upcoming multiannual energy plan (PPE) is expected to set the following objectives: a reduction in national energy consumption by 30 percent by 2030 from 2012 levels, and by 40 to 50 percent by 2050 from 2021 levels; an exit from coal in 2027 and from fossil fuels in 2050; and an increase in electricity output by 10 percent in 2030 and by 55 percent in 2050, as well as the doubling of low-carbon heat production by 2035 from 2021 levels.
Bayrou is heading for another period of turmoil by trying to adopt the new energy strategy that will guide the government’s policy for the next decade, also known as the third multi-year energy programme. He is caught between right-wing parties calling for an increase in nuclear ambition and the left looking to push for renewables production. Meanwhile, stakeholder input to a recent public consultation on the text led to strong criticism, including from the French Academy of Sciences, which deems the report incoherent.
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When it comes to low-carbon energy sources, the government plans to hike solar power capacity from 16 GW currently to 54-60 GW in 2030 and 75-100 in 2035; for onshore wind, from 21 GW currently to 33-35 GW in 2030 and 40-45 GW in 2035; for offshore wind, from 0.5 GW currently to 4 GW in 2030 and 18 GW in 2035. For biogas, an increase from 10.5 TWh/year currently to 50 TWh in 2030 and 50-85 TWh in 2035 is planned. Hydroelectric capacity is set to be raised from 26 GW currently to 29 GW in 2035; for renewable heating and cooling, from 183 TWh currently to 299 TWh in 2030 and 330-421.5 TWh in 2035. In total, France expects to produce 560 TWh of decarbonised electricity annually between 2030 and 2035, against 463 TWh currently. Total final energy consumption should hit 1,209 TWh in 2030 and some 1,100 TWh in 2035, against 1,611 TWh in 2021.
- France wants to become a leader in low-carbon hydrogen production. The upcoming energy plan PPE could set a target for 6.5 GW of electrolysers installed in 2030 and 10 GW in 2035. The government previously said that it planned to subsidise green hydrogen production with 700 million euros and introduce tenders for new electrolysis development in 2024. Industry experts have however warned that lower power prices would be needed.
- The government also renewed its focus on electrifying transport with incentives to promote electric car use. Under the new 2025 budget, combustion engine and hybrid cars will be taxed more heavily, and battery electric vehicles will receive less assistance.
- In 2023, France overtook Sweden as the largest net exporter of power in Europe, at 50.1 TWh net exports. In 2022, the country was the largest net power importer due to an unstable nuclear output.
- France’s two remaining coal-fired plants, which the country fired back up last year will operate until the end of 2024 for 500 hours more than the 1,300-hour ceiling initially authorised in order to avoid winter blackouts. This is permitted by a relaxation of GHG standards. The government plans to convert these to biomass plants by 2027. EDF has confirmed the closure of the Cordemais coal-fired power plant in Loire-Atlantique in September 2024.
- In the Barnier government, Agnès Pannier-Runacher had been appointed minister for the ecological transition, energy and climate. The former energy transition minister succeeded Christophe Béchu. Her responsibilities included the adaptation plan and the country's third national low-carbon strategy.
Industry
- The sector is responsible for about 18 percent of total GHG emissions.
- France’s most energy-intensive industries include steel, chemicals, cements and non-ferrous metals. In 2021, the government published a series of roadmaps to reduce emissions by 26 percent between 2015 and 2030 for the chemical sector, by 24 percent for cement, and by 31 percent for mining and metallurgy. In November 2023, France also managed to have 50 of the most climate-damaging industrial sites agree to collectively cut their emissions by at least 45 percent by 2030.
- As part of efforts to decarbonise its industry, the French government intends to scale up clean technology innovation and ensure competitive conditions for national startups and large companies. The sector must diminish emissions from 72 million tonnes of CO2eq in 2022 to 45 million tons of CO2eq in 2030.
- In March 2024, the country signed a bilateral agreement with Denmark to establish a framework for carbon transportation and storage. France estimates that carbon capture, storage and reuse could help decarbonise its industry, with a potential 4 to 8 million tonnes of CO2 sequestered each year by 2030, and between 15 and 20 million tonnes of CO2 by 2050.
- France’s green industry bill, which was adopted in autumn, aims to support the creation of new sites for green hydrogen, battery production, wind power, heat pumps and solar panels. Inspired by the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the bill includes a tax credit designed to attract industrial investments in green technologies from 2024.
- The European Commission has approved over 8 billion euros in French state aid to decarbonise its industry and develop renewable energies.
Buildings
- The sector is responsible for about 16 percent of total GHG emissions.
- As part of its new decarbonisation roadmap, the government intends to reduce the carbon footprint of construction products and systems and develop low-carbon operation of buildings.
- Launched in 2018, France’s energy renovation plan for buildings, known as ‘France Rénov’, is spurring consumers to renovate their homes to reduce energy bills and increase energy efficiency. In its latest energy and climate strategy, the government set an objective of 200,000 annual energy-efficient renovations from 2024, then 900,000 each year by 2030. Energy consumption of commercial buildings is set to be decreased by 40 percent by 2030 and by 60 percent by 2050. But some fear that the government’s recently announced decisions including budget cuts, support schemes reforms and changes to the energy performance diagnosis system could hamper the progress made in cutting buildings’ emissions.
- On the other hand, non-residential buildings with a car park of over twenty spaces will be obligated to install charging stations for EVs by January 1st, 2025. The French law also requires that outdoor car parks are partly covered by solar panels, depending on their surface. A wider regulation was adopted in March by the European Parliament, which will require the installation of solar panels on buildings across the EU.
- The now-collapsed Barnier government was planning to triple the domestic production of heat pumps over the next four years.
Mobility
- The sector is responsible for about 32 percent of total GHG emissions.
- France plans to produce one million EVs by 2027. In efforts to on-shore more manufacturing capacity, the government inaugurated the first lithium-ion battery production gigafactory by Automotive Cells Company (ACC) in 2023. Its initial production capacity will be over 13 GWh by the end of 2024, before rising to 40 GWh by 2030.
- As part of its new decarbonisation roadmap, the French government is seeking to reduce the automobile sector’s carbon footprint (including heavy vehicles) by decarbonising materials and components, increasing subsidies for domestic output, allowing tax reductions around industrial sites, and favouring the recycling of used battery materials.
- The government has announced 30 million euros in funding for two automotive battery recycling projects as part of France 2030. One of them, led by Veolia, Solvay and Renault, was targeting a capacity of 10,000 tonnes in 2023.
- The country, which plans to support the adoption of EVs through a financial incentive to switch from combustion engine to electric cars and other measures, is looking to further develop low-carbon liquid fuels, biogas, electricity, and hydrogen to decarbonise its heavy vehicle fleet. In May 2023, the French government banned domestic short-haul flights where train alternatives exist; a move which critics described as “symbolic” at best, arguing that it will only have minimal effects on France’s total carbon emissions.
- France will invest 500 million euros of public funds in the coming years to develop low-carbon aircraft, engines and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), in addition to planning to build the first low-carbon plane by 2030.
Agriculture
- The sector is responsible for about 19 percent of total GHG emissions.
- Since the start of 2024, agricultural workers have been protesting across France to express their anger over what they see as a poor quality of life mainly due to heavy workloads and competitiveness-linked constraints that they say translate into low incomes; but also their overexposure to pesticides and overall environmental degradation. Farmers intensified their protests over the EU’s 2023 nature restoration law, which would result in around 4 percent of farmland remaining fallow or rotating crops as member states are required to introduce environmental measures on a fifth of their land and sea by 2030. In January 2024, the EU executive proposed loosening green farming requirements to answer French farmers’ woes about related income losses; the proposals need to be discussed by member states. In February, France’s prime minister Gabriel Attal announced a series of measures to ease the agriculture sector’s concerns, including on pesticides, health regulations and subsidies and loans.
- In a group letter, more than 100 scientists said that the French government’s proposals to end the farmers’ protests were “a step backward for the environment and health” as they underlined the importance of reconciling the needs for food of the population with the preservation of biodiverse ecosystems.
- The Attal government had been discussing legislation on the future of agriculture (PLOAA) by 2040 in a bid to ensure that new generations are able to adapt to climate change and to the agro-ecological transition.
- France also expects the development of biomethane to help reduce the sector’s emissions.
Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)
- The sector had net-negative emissions of about 14 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2020.
- Greenpeace has called for a national moratorium on the construction of new livestock and poultry farms.
- The carbon storage capacity of forest ecosystems in France has halved in 10 years. According to the government, the country needs to invest up to 10 billion euros over ten years to adapt its forests to climate change.
- In June 2023, the Académie des Sciences provided recommendations to better manage France’s forests.
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Tipps and tricks
- CLEW’s Easy Guide to Germany’s transition with background information and links to key energy and climate data.
