Dispatch from Poland | June '25

*** Get a bird's-eye view of Italy’s climate-friendly transition in the CLEW Guide – Poland's new govt yet to deliver on energy transition promises***

Stories to watch in the weeks ahead

• Conservative presidential win – Right-wing opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki narrowly defeated the government-aligned Rafał Trzaskowski in Poland’s presidential election with 50.89 percent of the vote. Turnout reached a record high of 71.63 percent. Supported by the national-conservative PiS party, Nawrocki is expected to use his presidential powers to stifle the current government’s agenda through his power of veto. His campaign focused heavily on security and migration, and he expressed opposition to Ukraine’s potential membership of the EU and NATO, as well as having voiced strong criticism of the European Union – stances that may become particularly contentious in dealings with the pro-EU government.

  On energy and climate policy, he pledged to oppose the EU Green Deal and to hold a referendum on rejecting it, arguing that Poland cannot abandon coal. However, Poland’s president does not have the authority to unilaterally withdraw Poland from EU climate commitments. Nawrocki will take office from the incumbent Andrzej Duda, also a PiS ally, in August.

• Who’s going to lower electricity prices? – Nawrocki pledged to reduce electricity prices by 33 percent within his first 100 days in office, claiming this could be achieved by “rejecting green taxes” and withdrawing from the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), which makes burning coal for electricity more expensive year-on-year. In a YouTube discussion with far-right rival Sławomir Mentzen, Nawrocki suggested that such a move could be made through the Constitutional Tribunal, widely regarded as being under the influence of PiS. On 27 May, the court was set to rule on whether EU climate regulation is in conflict with the Polish constitution. However, no decision was made and the session was postponed to 10 June.

• Second nuclear power plant – Poland will begin talks in June 2025 with international partners – such as the US, France, Canada, and South Korea – regarding participation in the construction of its second nuclear power plant. The government expects feedback from potential investors in 2026, and a final investor may be chosen that year to lead further negotiations. Preferred locations for the plant include Bełchatów and Konin, where coal plants currently operate, though no final decision has been made. Although Poland does not yet have a nuclear power plant, it plans to build its first one on the coast of the Baltic Sea in Choczewo. Construction of the project, backed by a recent agreement with US companies Westinghouse and Bechtel, will start in 2028 and full operation is expected by 2039. According to the Polish Nuclear Power Programme, the two planned plants are expected to provide a combined capacity of 6 to 9 gigawatts (GW), with 3.75 GW in Choczewo. For context, Poland's total installed electricity capacity in 2024 was 64.3 GW.

• Still late on climate strategy – Poland is still yet to submit its final updated National Energy and Climate Plan to the European Commission, after missing the official deadline by almost a year. The plan should spell out specific policies and actions to reach 2030 climate and energy targets. Climate minister Paulina Hennig-Kloska recently confirmed the final version will be discussed in an upcoming meeting among leadership of the ministry before going to the government for approval. The government previously pledged to send it to Brussels by June 2025, and delays could lead to legal action. The draft aims for over 50 percent renewable electricity by 2030 – a goal backed by green NGOs and liberals but opposed by coal unions and conservatives.

The latest from Poland – last month in recap

• Clean energy milestone – In April, coal generated less than half of Poland’s electricity in a month for the first time, marking a significant milestone in the country’s shift toward cleaner energy. Coal’s share dropped to 49.4 percent, while renewables rose to 34.2 percent, showed a report by think tank Forum Energii. Solar power surged significantly, and gas-fired power generation increased year-on-year despite lower overall electricity demand. Forum Energii highlighted that coal’s monthly share fell by nearly 30 percentage points over the past decade, from April 2015 to April 2025.
• Rush for offshore wind continues – Poland’s largest private energy firm, Polenergia, and Norway’s Equinor have approved a 6.4 billion euro investment to build two offshore wind farms – Bałtyk 2 and Bałtyk 3 – in the Baltic Sea. It is the third offshore wind project underway in Poland, which currently produces no electricity from offshore wind. With a combined capacity of 1.4 GW, the newly announced farms are set to supply clean electricity to over two million Polish households starting in 2027.
• Offshore brings new factories too – Poland announced 54 million euros in state support for what it says will be the world’s largest factory for offshore wind turbine towers, to be built in Szczecin by the Polish subsidiary of Spain’s Windar Renovables. The facility, located on the coast of the Baltic Sea, will allow the direct sea transport of massive tower components that cannot be moved over land. The plant is expected to be fully operational by early 2027, and it will produce up to 500 tower sections annually and create 500 jobs
• Potential nuclear cooperation with France – In May, Poland and France signed a new treaty that included plans to cooperate on the development of civilian nuclear technologies, reflecting a shared commitment to clean energy and low-emission power sources. The agreement could also open the door to future collaboration on nuclear energy security, as discussions continue around France potentially extending its nuclear umbrella to allies like Poland.

Alicja’s picks – highlights from upcoming events and top reads

• The report "Strategy or Stagnation?" published by Reform Institute, a think tank focused on public policy,argues that Poland is at a critical turning point in its energy transition, but the country lacks a coherent, long-term strategy to navigate it effectively. The report offers a clear diagnosis of systemic weaknesses and missed opportunities, while drawing on international examples to show how better planning and coordination could help Poland avoid rising social and economic costs.
• In this opinion piece published at Business Insider, Polish energy journalist Szymon Majewski argues that Poland’s presidential election offers a stark reminder that resistance to climate policy is becoming a powerful political force, especially in coal-dependent regions.