CLEW Guide – Poland's govt yet to deliver on energy transition promises
With its “CLEW Guide” series, the Clean Energy Wire newsroom and contributors from across Europe are providing journalists with a bird's-eye view of the climate-friendly transition from key countries and the bloc as a whole. You can also sign up to the weekly newsletter here to receive our "Dispatch from..." – weekly updates from Germany, France, Italy, Croatia, Poland and the EU on the need-to-know about the continent’s move to climate neutrality.
(With contributions by Wojciech Jakóbik)
Content:
Key background
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Since the October 2023 parliamentary election, Poland has been led by a broad, pro-European centre-left to centre-right coalition. The government, headed by former European Council president Donald Tusk, is made up of Tusk’s Civic Coalition (156 seats of 460), the Third Way alliance (65), and the Left alliance (21). The governing coalition has pledged to accelerate the country’s energy transition. However, it still has not delivered much in terms of legislation or new initiatives. Its attempt to pass a bill allowing the construction of onshore wind turbines closer to homes has been blocked by the recently elected president, who is aligned with the opposition.
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Poland was responsible for just under 11 percent of the EU’s total GHG emissions in 2023. Carbon emissions have fallen over 30 percent since peaking in the 1980s. Most of the reductions occurred in the 1990s during the fall of communism and the shift from an industrial planned economy. Emission levels have not changed significantly since 2001. Poland's current greenhouse gas emission reduction target in the EU for 2030 (for domestic transport, buildings, agriculture, small industry and waste) is 17.7 percent compared to 2005. It is far less than in countries like Germany or Denmark (50%), but Poland's total emissions in 2022 were just two percent below 2005 levels.
- In the past years, Poland saw a significant drop in the share of coal in its electricity mix, from 70 percent in 2022 to about 57 percent in 2024. In the same year, the country increased its share of electricity generated from renewables by 2.3 points, to 29.6 percent. In June 2025, for the first time, renewables produced more electricity than coal plants, according to preliminary data. But even with the rise in renewables, coal remains the main source of electricity throughout the year. Poland’s power sector has the highest carbon intensity in the European Union, making the coal phase-out a key challenge. Moreover, Poland is the only country in the EU that does not have an official date for ending coal power use. The country’s energy sector is dominated by big, state-owned or partially state-owned companies, like the oil corporation Orlen or Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE), an energy company that owns coal plants and mines.
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Poland’s government has finally unveiled its long-delayed National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). The ambitious scenario of the plan foresees renewables providing over half of electricity by 2030 and nearly 80 percent by 2040 (up from 29 percent in 2024) with coal largely phased out by 2035 and gas consumption halved by 2040. The plan includes a pledge of 1.1 trillion PLN (around €258 billion) in investments by 2030 to expand renewables, upgrade grids, and modernise buildings.
Poland has managed to diversify its gas, oil and coal supplies, after being heavily reliant on imports from Russia. In 2023, subsidies were put in place to keep gas and electricity prices down - but this cost the state tens of billions of euros. The government has extended the price freeze for households multiple times, with the latest extension until the end of 2025. After peaking in 2023, the wholesale price for energy has fallen and stabilised in 2024 (though at a level significantly above pre-2022 prices).
- Air pollution is a major public health concern, fuelled not just by cars, but also by furnaces, as no other EU country uses nearly as much coal for heating.
Major transition stories
- The burden of coal – Coal power is the heaviest burden on Poland’s energy transition. The previous government said that Poland would be the last EU country to use coal for power generation well into the 2040s. With ageing plants and subsidies secured for just the next few years, many coal plants will face closure earlier than planned, possibly threatening Poland with a power generation gap. The new coalition government pledged to accelerate the deployment of renewables which, if realised, would make the need for coal marginal around the late 2030s. More than a year after taking power, however, it still failed to deliver much of the legislation that would facilitate achieving this ambition. Just transition plans have been drawn up for coal regions, but not all of them will receive EU funding – the lignite mine in the region of Turów was not approved for support as coal extraction is planned to continue until 2044. Over a year into a new government in the office there are signs that Poland aims at prolonging the capacity market support for coal beyond 2030 and is going to invest in natural gas generation as an interim solution. Extraction at the open-cast lignite mine at Bełchatów, the largest such facility in Europe, is to be finished in the 2030s. Until then, the mine will receive funding. With a rising CO2 price in the EU ETS, coal is driving up electricity prices.
- Battery power-house — Poland is not among the EU’s leading car producers, but there is a sector that stands to gain from the transition to electric vehicles: battery production. In April 2023, Poland overtook the U.S. as the country with the second largest lithium-ion battery production capacity in the world. The sector sees the rise of EVs and energy storage as a huge opportunity. But a BloombergNEF projection sees Poland falling behind the U.S., Germany, Hungary and Sweden by 2027. New EU rules on carbon footprint could also put factories in Poland at a disadvantage.
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Going nuclear – Poland has not yet built a nuclear power plant, despite ongoing efforts since the 1970s. The first initiative from 1971 made it to the construction phase, but collapsed after the fall of communism and subsequent protests. A newer project, which began in 2009, became stuck in an early phase. The most recent nuclear project, with the US firm Westinghouse as a technological partner, has come the furthest since the fall of communism. While 2033 was the original official opening date, 2035 now looks more realistic. Poland is also working on selecting a second location for another nuclear power plant and plans to announce the decision by the end of 2025. There are talks to include French company EDF in a project in Bełchatów, and another public-private project considered was a partnership with the South Korean firm KHNP. In August 2025, KHNP withdrew from the project citing alleged changes in Warsaw’s energy policy under the new government – claims that Poland’s energy ministry has denied. Polish state oil company Orlen is planning to build two Small Modular Reactor (SMR) units by 2035.
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Winds of change? – Wind power development has stalled in recent years with the passing of unfavourable legislation. In June 2025, the Sejm, Poland’s lower house of parliament, approved a bill that aims to create more favourable conditions for onshore wind expansion and provides financial incentives for people living within one kilometre of new turbines. The bill was, however, vetoed by Poland’s new opposition-aligned president Karol Nawrocki, who argued the law lacked public support. In early 2025, construction began on Baltic Power, the first offshore wind farm in Polish waters, with a capacity of 1.2 GW. The second offshore project will be built by state-owned energy firm PGE and Denmark’s Ørsted, with a planned capacity of nearly 1.5 GW. In May, Poland’s biggest private energy company, Polenergia, also announced plans to build two offshore wind farms, with an expected combined capacity of 1.4 GW.
- Solar boom — Solar PV in Poland exploded from a marginal capacity in 2018 to over 23 GW by May 2025, having supplied 11.3 percent of electricity generation in 2024 (up from 5.7 percent in 2022) with both rooftop solar and utility-scale projects. However, this has pushed the outdated electricity grid to its limits, leading to thousands of projects being denied grid connection due to outdated regulations or just too much electricity for the grid to cope with.
- Heating in peril – Sixteen million Poles are keeping their homes warm in winter with district heating, the largest number of district heating customers among all EU countries. The vast majority of district heating systems use coal and are considered inefficient. Experts say the sector is “underinvested, outdated and unprofitable,” with customers bearing the brunt of rising costs. In May 2024, Poland opened its first heating plant based on 100-percent renewable sources. It was, built with government support, using solar, heat pumps and heat storage. In March 2025, EU member states agreed with Poland's proposition of allocating an additional 30 percent of free emission allowances for district heating, a decision hailed by the Climate Ministry as success of Poland's EU presidency.
- Clean(er) air – Poland’s struggle with high air pollution has for years focused on heating, but now it is also starting to tackle cars. After Warsaw in 2024, Kraków is now the second city to implement a Clean Transport Zone (Strefa czystego transportu - SCT). Warsaw will gradually ban older cars (especially diesel-powered ones) from its centre, while Kraków will initially charge them for entry. There are however numerous exemptions for city residents, the elderly and other groups.
Sector overview
Energy
- Responsible for 50.1 percent of total GHG emissions in 2022.
- In 2024, coal was the main source of electricity (57.1 %). It remained the largest proportion by far in the EU, despite the significant drop from 70 percent in 2022. Wind and solar power’s share together rose to 23.7 percent and renewables in total reached almost 30 percent.
- The lignite plant PGE Bełchatów is the EU's highest emitting power plant, but now it has a plan to close down gradually until 2036 (with a 77% reduction until 2030).
- Poland plans a gradual phase-out of coal, replacing it with a mix of renewables and nuclear generation. New fossil gas plants are also to be built, but some plans have been revised after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
- In 2021, Poland adopted the Energy policy of Poland until 2040 (PEP2040) programme with the following main targets: 32 percent of renewables in electricity generation and no more than 56 percent of power from coal by 2030, and the first nuclear power plant starting operation in 2033. The plan has been criticised by NGOs and parliamentary opposition as “unrealistic”. Donald Tusk’s government, ruling since December 2023, is working on an update to the document (with no deadline officially presented yet).
- In a draft update of Poland’s National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), put to public consultation in September, the climate ministry outlined an “ambitious” transition scenario for 2030: 50.4 percent GHG reduction (compared to 1990); 56 percent of electricity generated from renewables sources; and the share of coal-fired power generation falling to 22 percent (from 61 in 2023). Following the consultation period 25 climate-focused NGOs called on Poland to commit to the more ambitious scenario and not settle for “an unspecified compromise”. The government planned to submit it to Brussels in June 2025, but did not approve the document by that time, and did not announce a new deadline.
- According to electric grid operator Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne, the installed capacity of photovoltaic panels and wind farms reached a combined 34 GW in June 2025, of which around 23 GW are solar PV.
Industry
- Responsible for 14.8 percent of total GHG emissions in 2021.
- It covers about 5 percent of Poland’s GDP and 400 thousand jobs.
- Energy intensity of industry (per GDP unit) is above the EU average, but companies are increasingly looking to improve efficiency and use zero-carbon energy, both in form of renewables and small nuclear reactors.
- CO2-intensive industries in Poland are comprised of both private domestic and international companies (like ArcelorMittal) and partially state-owned companies (like Orlen and Grupa Azoty). The sectors of Polish industry which emit most CO2 are cement, oil and coke as well as chemicals and fertiliser production.
- In 2022, energy-intensive industries struggled with big increases in electricity and gas prices. The high carbon intensity of the power sector is not only driving up prices, but also increasingly threatening their business as more and more clients are looking not just at price, but also at the carbon footprint.
- A draft hydrogen law was presented in September 2024. It aims to regulate hydrogen operating systems and create institutions similar to those already existing for gas, such as the company responsible for gas transmission infrastructure. The aim is to facilitate investments in hydrogen infrastructure.
Buildings
- Responsible for 10.7 percent of total GHG emissions.
- Solid fuels (coal, wood) and district heating (mainly coal plants) dominate in the heating sector, but gas boiler use has increased in recent years and can now be found in a quarter of all buildings (according to incomplete government data).
- The energy crisis has led to a boom in heat-pump sales, but that proved temporary. With elevated electricity prices, biomass (in particular wood pellet) boilers have become a more popular replacement for old coal furnaces.
- Until recently, Poles accounted for as much as 87 percent of the total amount of coal burned by EU households, and almost two-thirds of buildings in Poland are characterised by low energy efficiency. In 2022, the government suspended quality requirements for coal sold to households due to the energy crisis, and later extended that until the end of 2023.
- The current government targets are: coal phase-out in city households by 2030 and outside cities by 2040, with all heating covered by “low emission sources” or district heating by 2040 (experts point out that this could be achieved much sooner). The building renovation strategy sets a target of renovating and insulating 236 thousand buildings per year between 2020-2030, with numbers increasing in the next decades.
- Polish cities have some of the worst air quality levels in Europe with buildings being (mainly solid fuels furnaces) the biggest contributor to fine particulate pollution.
- Almost 29 billion PLN (€6.9 billion) were contracted for household heating source replacement in the “Clean Air” governmental programme; but until 2022 it was possible to get a subsidy for a more efficient coal furnace. The programme was suspended in November 2024 citing “irregularities” and relaunched at the end of March 2025. But the first months of the new version show that it has lost much of its popularity due to cases of fraud and what NGOs criticise as government mismanagement.
Mobility
- Domestic transport is responsible for 19.9 percent of total GHG emissions and is the only sector that had its emissions increase between 1990 and 2021.
- In 2019, the government adopted the Sustainable Transport Development Strategy until 2030. It assumes an 8 percent rise in CO2 emissions from transport by 2030 (compared to 2017) and has no specific target for the number of EVs. In a draft update to Poland’s National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), Donald Tusk’s government concludes that it will be “impossible” for Poland to meet the EU’s target of 29 percent of renewable share in the transport sector – it projects a 17,7 percent share by 2030.
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The PiS government, in its official plans, is aiming for zero-emissions public transport in the biggest cities by 2030, as stated in Energy Policy of Poland (EPP2040). In 2016, then deputy prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced that there will be one million electric cars in Poland by 2025, but, as of July 2025, Poland has just 186,590 electric cars, including almost 94,000 all-electric BEVs. The country also has just under 11,000 charging points. According to Eurostat data, in 2023, Poland had the EU’s joint-lowest share of fully electric cars.
- A new electric car subsidy program was launched in February. Worth PLN 1.6 billion (€380 million), the program provides subsidies of up to PLN 40 000 (€9,540) for the purchase of an electric car (if all conditions are met). The funds come from the EU's Recovery and Resilience Facility.
- Transport is the area of the transition which the United Right government was most squarely behind, at least rhetorically, promoting electromobility and even initiating a state-led project of Polish EV brand “Izera.” Now the project’s future is in question as the new coalition will be reviewing controversial initiatives from the PiS era. In September 2023, state auditors published a report stating that the project was "96 percent behind schedule." Over a year later, however, there is still no decision on the construction of the production plant.
- Poland is the EU’s leader in road freight, but the industry could be left out from the European market without a transition to zero emission trucks.
- Poland is Europe's biggest producer of lithium-ion batteries, and second-largest in the world (after China).
Agriculture
- Responsible for 9.5 percent of total GHG emissions in 2021, mostly in the form of nitrous oxide and methane (caused in around equal 40 percent parts by soil related emissions and direct livestock emissions).
- There is no governmental emissions reduction target; the government only points to EU-wide targets for 2030 and 2050.
- The government sees biogas as an important project in developing circular economy in rural areas and providing low carbon energy.
- The effects of climate change, especially drought, are already impacting Polish agriculture.
- Like in much of the Europe, big farmer protests took place in Poland in the first months of 2024. The biggest issue was food imports from Ukraine, but opposition to elements of the EU Green Deal were also among the reasons for the protest. Agriculture minister Czesław Siekierski (PSL/Third way) also called some elements of the EU’s climate policy “irrational”, and the government supported loosening some requirements by the EU.
Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)
- Forests and other areas remain a carbon sink and removed 35,6 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents in 2022. Around 30 percent of Poland is covered by forest (a number similar to countries like France or Germany) and around 80 percent of them are state owned and managed by a special public company, State Forests National Forest Holding. In 2022 State Forest had a record income of 13.5 billion PLN (~€3.1 bln) from selling wood. In recent years, the company has come under criticism from NGOs and private citizens for a number of issues, from lack of transparency to logging in old-growth forests. The Donald Tusks government is working on reforming the institution and protecting 20 percent of forest.
- The level of CO2 removal by forests has been decreasing over the last decade, with a sharp fall in recent years (from over 40 million tonnes to just over 20 million tonnes). According to Poland's emissions report, the main reasons are due to the long-term effects of disasters like permanent drought and storms with strong wind causing trees to fall. Timber harvesting is also on the rise.
- The former United Right government has been pointing to forest sequestration as a climate solution, including during COP24 in Poland; but sequestration levels have been falling and in 2021 it amounted to only 52 percent of Poland’s target for 2030. A solution proposed by the State Forestry organisation to counter this problem has had a marginal effect.
- In one of the first decisions of the climate ministry under the new government, logging was temporarily halted or at least reduced in in 1.3 percent of state-managed forests (78 percent of forest in Poland are managed by State Forests) . The locations were chosen for environmental and social significance. The coalition has promised to increase protection of 20 percent of the public forests by next election (in 2027).
- The new ruling coalition also wants to create Poland’s first new national parks in over two decades, as well as expand existing ones. It notes national parks cover only 1.1 percent of Poland’s land area compared to an EU average of 3.7 percent.
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