Germany's CO2 emissions set to fall slightly in 2025 as energy demand stagnates
Clean Energy Wire
Structural changes in Germany's energy consumption, alongside stagnating to slightly declining demand, are set to reduce energy-related CO2 emissions by around 1 percent in 2025 compared with the previous year, according to annual calculations by energy market research group AG Energiebilanzen (AGEB).
Primary energy consumption would have fallen by about 1.2 percent year on year were it not for cooler weather in February, March and October, which boosted heating demand. Instead, consumption is expected to stagnate or decline only marginally in 2025, AGEB said.
Subdued production in energy-intensive industries, particularly in the chemical sector, had only a limited impact on energy demand. Falling consumer prices for motor fuels, heating oil and natural gas supported consumption, partially offsetting demand-reducing factors. Earlier AGEB forecasts had pointed to rising energy use and emissions. However, the group said that factors dampening demand ultimately outweighed those pushing consumption higher in 2025.
Weakness in the chemical industry contributed to lower consumption of mineral oil and other fossil fuel products, although sales of aviation fuel rose by more than 4 percent. Overall consumption of lignite and hard coal declined, while Germany's net electricity imports also fell. Renewable energy and natural gas both increased their shares in Germany's energy mix. Renewables accounted for 20.6 percent of total energy consumption, up from 19.8 percent in 2024, while the share of natural gas edged higher.
Germany's energy consumption has declined amid economic weakness and reduced output in energy-intensive industries. Despite progress on renewables, the country remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels, with oil dominating transport and natural gas widely used for heating and industry. Germany has made slower progress in cutting overall energy demand than in expanding renewable power generation. Improving energy efficiency is widely seen as a central pillar of the energy transition and essential to meeting the country's target of climate neutrality by 2045. Under Germany's energy efficiency law, primary energy consumption is to be reduced by 39.3 percent by 2030 compared with 2008 levels.
