Dispatch from France | October ‘26

Presidential battleground – As the next French presidential election scheduled for April 2027 draws near, soaring energy prices are likely to become central to the political debate. With fishermen blocking oil depots in Mediterranean ports and farmers dumping waste at the Guyancourt tax office, high-polling candidates are proposing different remedies. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen proposes to cut the value added tax for fuel from 20 percent to 5.5 percent, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon from the far-left prefers to cap prices at 1.70 euros per litre for petrol and 1.80 euros for diesel.

Energy vulnerability – The Middle East crisis continues to put a strain on prices at the pump in France, where the average cost of gasoline has risen by 30 percent and diesel by 39 percent since February. Gas bills are also going up. Hoping to prevent a crisis before French president Emmanuel Macron’s term ends, the government has expanded its targeted relief with a 450-million-euro package, bringing the total to 1.4 billion euros, part of which will go to 5.5 million high-mileage commuters. On 17 October, mass protests against rising living costs took a violent turn, with more than 3,000 businesses vandalised and several public service buildings burnt, including the town hall in Limoges.

Gulf tour – Amid countrywide demonstrations, Macron went on a Gulf tour in an attempt to counteract Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and secure fossil fuel supplies for France. Saudi Arabia, which had originally pledged to deliver diesel in October and November, agreed to supply extra diesel “for as many months as necessary”. The French president also obtained commitments for diesel deliveries from the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Combined, the pledges cover around 10 percent of France’s monthly consumption. Macron also secured a gas deal with Qatar to cover the country’s winter needs. Separately, the president said France would send military personnel and equipment to protect the Red Sea oil port of Yanbu in Saudi Arabia, a strategic energy site, following Houthi attacks. His plans have yet to be detailed.

O climate, where art thou? – Beyond rising energy prices, all election contenders are expected to take worsening climate conditions seriously, especially after France’s scorching summer, which could cost up to 15 billion euros at a time when the country is knee-deep in debt. But so far, structural and societal changes to address the climate crisis have failed to gain traction on most of their platforms, which often favour technological solutions. Members of environmental organisations like Oxfam and Greenpeace point to a “formidable denial” or a “total disconnect”. 

Mission emissions – As one of the countries worst hit by increasing fossil-fuel import bills, France has scaled up its national electrification plan, including by nearly doubling annual public support to 10 billion euros by 2030. However, it will take more to move the needle. According to Citepa, a non-profit organisation publishing data on atmospheric pollution, France’s greenhouse gas emissions are projected to decline by 2.8 percent this year, a decarbonisation rate still largely insufficient to meet its climate objectives by 2030. Meanwhile, Macron has asked for a one-year delay in the EU rules that require foreign oil and gas suppliers to report methane emissions. The European Commission has proposed that the rules apply from 2028 only, but it could be delayed even longer.

Formal notice – The European Commission has opened an infringement procedure by sending a letter of formal notice to France for failing to submit its updated electricity risk-preparedness plan, which was initially due in January. The document is intended to outline how the government will handle power crises, from cyberattacks to extreme weather events, to avoid or minimise disruption to electricity supplies. France has two months to respond.

Environmental partners – While the US federal government backtracks on climate commitments, the state of California is strengthening transatlantic relations. In October, France’s minister for ecological transition and biodiversity, Monique Barbut, and California’s governor, Gavin Newsom, signed a letter of intent to launch a partnership in fields ranging from climate change adaptation to energy efficiency in buildings to air quality improvement. The aim is to promote innovation and research exchanges and deepen commercial ties.

Farming boost – France has devoted over one billion euros to help its farmers recover from this summer’s heatwaves and drought. According to agriculture minister Annie Genevard, between 30,000 and 35,000 French farms are facing financial trouble or are about to do so. The package includes 520 million euros in rapid payments, 235 million euros to support the most vulnerable farms in buying seeds, plant and ​animal feed, and 330 million euros dedicated to tax reliefs.

Data centre backlash – Environmental activists have been protesting against the construction of Europe’s largest artificial intelligence data centre in the village of Fouju, near Paris. The 50-billion-euro project, called Campus IA, is set to span 70 hectares of farmland and require about 1.4 gigawatts of electricity capacity. It has sparked concerns over the destruction of green space, cooling and waste heat, energy consumption and carbon and chemical pollution.

Trump repeals emissions regulations of fossil-fuel power plants: Probably expected but disheartening nonetheless - the Trump administration has repealed a Biden-era cap on emissions for fossil-fuel power plants, which required them to capture 90 percent of their greenhouse gas emissions. Adam Kovac, reporter at Scientific American, shares details about the move, which, once again since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, goes against the scientific consensus. 

Is coal really making a comeback? Less expected, the International Energy Agency has projected that coal consumption would climb to a record high this year. Grist writer Kate Yoder wonders whether coal is back in fashion, in part due to the Iran war, which has pushed governments to seek alternatives to oil and gas. For energy experts, this is likely a short-term bump rather than a lasting revival, especially as the same market pressures are speeding up the development of clean energy sources.