Dispatch from Poland | July '25

Stories to watch in the weeks ahead

• A government reshuffle, now scheduled for the last week in July, could bring about significant changes in climate and energy portfolios. Prime minister Donald Tusk has been hinting at personal and structural changes in his cabinet for months. As reported by Polityka Insight, Tusk plans to create a single, powerful ministry to consolidate energy and transition-related issues, which are currentlydispersed among various ministries. Climate minister Paulina Hennig-Kloska (from the centrist Polska 2050 party) has been the subject of numerous rumours about being replaced during her 18 months in office, but has so far kept her position. We’re about to find out if she will survive the broad cabinet reshuffle and, if so, in what role.

• Karol Nawrocki will be sworn in as Poland’s new president on 6 August. Nawrocki, who ran on a right-wing platform with the support of the populist former ruling party PiS, will have the power to veto any bill passed by parliament - a major headache for Tusk’s government. During the campaign, Nawrocki said Poland should bet on coal - which he called “black gold” - for its economic development. He also promised lower energy bills, an “anti green deal” international conference in Poland, and a referendum on rejecting the EU’s climate policy. A first major test could be Nawrocki’s decision on whether to sign or veto a wind farm bill due to be passed by the senate.

• What will Poland's position be in the EU’s 2040 climate target negotiations? Only a few days after the end of Poland’s EU Council presidency, the European Commission proposed a 90 percent greenhouse gas reduction target for 2040. Poland’s government reportedly lobbied to delay the publication in order to push the discussion into the Danish presidency. The 90 percent target did give the opposition and ruling coalition something to agree on though: both have been trying to outdo each other in their criticism of the goal.

• After much delay, the climate ministry has finished the internal work for updating the Polish 2030 National Energy and Climate Plan, which is mandated under the EU. The plan will now be discussed with other ministries, although there is no information on how long that will take. Poland is already facing penalties from the European Commission for the delay. The latest version of the document, which contains up-to-date prognoses on the Polish energy transition for the next five years and beyond, might become public soon.

The latest from Poland – last month in recap

• Poland made international headlines with a new milestone in its energy system. In June, for the first full month ever, it produced more electricity from renewables than coal, according to preliminary data. The record is partially due to the steady growth of solar capacity, as well as favourable weather conditions, as the think tank Forum Energii points out. Wind farms, whose capacity grew 7 percent compared to a year earlier, produced twice as much electricity as last June thanks to lots of wind. In the first week of July, Poland’s renewable energy sector took another key step by starting the installation of the first of 76 turbines in the country’s first offshore wind farm in the Baltic. The „Baltic Power” farm - a joint project of state-owned oil and gas company Orlen and Canada’s Northland Power - will be capable of covering up to 3 percent of Poland’s electricity demand in 2026.

• The Clean Air Programme - a multi-billion-euro subsidy scheme for house insulation and coal furnace replacement - is facing a major setback. It was abruptly shut last year after the government reported cases of fraud. In April, a reformed programme went back online, but the number of applications has dropped dramatically and is nowhere near enough to reach the goal of replacing coal furnaces with cleaner alternatives such as gas boilers, heat pumps, or electric heating by 2030. Experts accused the government of mishandling the reform, hurting honest applicants as much as fraudsters, and undermining public trust in the programme.

• Extreme weather events are, again, hitting Poland this summer. In the first week of July, much of the country was under official drought watch, and the water level of the Vistula River in Warsaw dropped to an all-time low of 11 centimetres, shattering the previous record of 20 centimeters, which was set only ten months ago in September 2024. Straight after the drought, a low pressure system brought torrential rains and local flooding. Luckily, the south of the country avoided a repeat of the major flooding which devastated the region last September.

• Kraków is now the second Polish city after the capital Warsaw to introduce a Clean Transportation Zone, with fees and limitations for the most polluting cars. The scheme has been in place in Warsaw for a year but, due to numerous excemptions and weak enforcement, not a single driver has been fined for entering the zone with a vehicle that doesn’t meet the standards.

Patryk’s picks – highlights from upcoming events and top reads

• Aleksandra Hołownia in “Dziennik Gazeta Prawna” interviews deputy Climate Minister Krzysztof Bolesta on the Polish government’s position on ETS2 and the EU’s 2040 climate target, and possibly linking the two in negotiations.

• For the most recent data and analysis on the Polish energy system and transition, read this year's edition of Forum Energii (well established energy think tank) report “Energy Transformation in Poland 2025”.

• This article by Tomasz Elżbieciak in wysokienapiecie.pl offers a thorough analysis on the government's wind farm bill, seen as crucial to the onshore wind farms development in Poland.