Dispatch from Poland | July '26

Poland welcomes EU ETS reform proposal – Poland’s climate minister, Paulina Hennig-Kloska, welcomed the ETS reform proposed by the European Commission last week as a success for Polish diplomacy, saying it marks the first time EU climate policy has been eased rather than tightened. The proposal will now be debated among EU member state governments and negotiated with the European Parliament. Hennig-Kloska said Poland would continue pushing to reduce the burden of climate policies, highlighting the need to keep European industry competitive. Her deputy, Krzysztof Bolesta, announced that Poland will seek a larger Modernisation Fund, which supports energy system modernisation in several EU countries, and to make the new emissions trading system for the transport and building sectors (ETS2) voluntary.

EU's climate policy possible flashpoint ahead of next year's election – Polish president Karol Nawrocki has renewed his push for a referendum on rejecting EU climate policy, as criticism of the Green Deal and ETS becomes an increasingly contentious political issue ahead of next year’s parliamentary election. His first proposal was rejected by the Senate because lawmakers argued that the wording of the question implied a preferred answer and stoked political divisions. The revised proposal features a simpler question: “Are you in favour of Poland implementing the European Union’s climate policy?” However, it is again unlikely to pass, as prime minister Donald Tusk’s governing coalition holds 63 votes in the 100-seat Senate.

Poland wants to reduce gas reliance with biomethane – Poland’s government has adopted a draft law to develop the biomethane market, aiming to reduce reliance on imported gas in the face of rising prices and the energy crisis caused by the war in Iran. According to deputy climate minister Urszula Zielińska, biomethane produced from national agricultural and food waste could replace at least a quarter of current gas imports. “This is gas that won’t get stuck in the Strait of Hormuz,” she said. The bill introduces support auctions for larger biomethane plants, allowing for direct gas pipelines between producers and biogas consumers, and simplifies rules for energy storage, prosumers and energy cooperatives. It must now be approved by parliament and then by the opposition-backed president.

New renewables capacity officially unlocked – Poland’s first offshore wind farm, Baltic Power, has started generating electricity. Once completed this autumn, it is expected to supply 4 TWh annually (enough to power 1.5 million homes or 3% of the country’s electricity demand). It is the first of six planned Polish offshore wind farms and part of the country’s broader transition away from coal, currently its dominant energy source. The government is aiming for offshore wind to provide around 20 percent of electricity by 2040. 

Plans and targets – Poland has finally adopted the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) after two years of delays, becoming the last EU country to do so. The plan sets out 2040 energy transition targets and, while it does not include an official coal phase-out date, it projects coal’s share of the electricity mix could fall from around 52 percent in 2025 to zero by 2040 in the most ambitious scenario, or around 5 percent under existing measures. Renewables are expected to rise from just over 29 percent today to 66–69 percent, supported by offshore wind expansion and the addition of nuclear power, with Poland’s first nuclear plant scheduled to begin operations in 2036.

Polish energy companies take transition ambitions abroad - Beyond Poland’s official state-backed nuclear project, private companies are also seeking to invest in small modular reactors (SMRs). One such company, Synthos Green Energy (SGE), owned by Poland’s richest man Michał Sołowow, has expanded its ambitions beyond Poland and announced plans to build 14 SMRs in the UK as part of a £35 billion investment project. The reactors would have a combined capacity of 4.2 gigawatts and could supply around 11 percent of UK electricity demand. The company aims to build a fleet of up to 26 SMRs in Poland. SMRs are viewed by their proponents as a more cost-effective alternative to conventional nuclear plants. However, SMRs are still at an early stage of deployment, with operational facilities currently limited to just two sites worldwide, in Russia and China. 

Warsaw shows early signs of improving air quality – According to preliminary data from Warsaw’s Office of Air Protection and Climate Policy, published by Clean Cities Polska, nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) levels have fallen by 18 percent inside Warsaw’s clean transport zone, the first such zone introduced in Poland, compared with a 5-percent decline outside the zone. While experts say the results are encouraging, they caution that other factors beyond vehicle restrictions may have contributed to the improvement. Poland has some of Europe's worst air quality, with thousands of premature deaths attributed to air pollution. NO₂ is not a greenhouse gas (GHG), but the switch to EVs, often mainly seen as a climate measure, would also eliminate tailpipe nitrogen dioxide emissions. Transport is the sector in which Poland has made the least progress in reducing emissions. It is one of the EU countries with the lowest adoption of fully electric cars. In its latest NECP, the government estimates that under its most ambitious scenario, transport GHG emissions in 2030 and 2040 will still remain 180 percent and 117 percent respectively above 1990 levels.

Bartłomiej Orzeł, head of Project Tempo’s Polish programme, which focuses on designing energy transition policies, has written an insightful piece for Klub Jagielloński, a Polish Christian-democratic think tank, on how the former ruling conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party is distancing itself from its own achievements in expanding renewables. Orzeł argues that PiS is now “disowning” these successes as it seeks to appeal to voters concerned about rising energy costs and blaming them on EU climate policies. His analysis offers insight into how the energy transition may shape the debate ahead of Poland’s next parliamentary election. The article is available in original Polish and in English via Notes from Poland.

Instrat, a think tank focused on a fair, green and digital economy, has published a report on miners’ attitudes toward the energy transition at Bogdanka, Poland’s only profitable coal mine which missed out on the current Just Transition Fund, an EU financial tool designed to support the tranformation of regions and industries dependent on fossil fuels. Based on in-depth interviews, it finds that while miners are not opposed to the transition, they remain anxious due to a lack of clarity about how long they will keep their jobs, whether well-paid work will be available after the mine closes, and if they will have to leave the region.