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Dispatch from Poland | October '26

The turmoil in energy markets triggered by the US-Israeli war against Iran has underscored some of the key challenges facing Poland. The country must reconcile its decarbonisation goals with the need for reliable, affordable energy and a transition that is both politically and socially sustainable. To achieve this, Warsaw is pursuing what may seem like contradictory goals: pushing for greater flexibility in EU carbon pricing, while pressing ahead with the restructuring of its powerful coal industry. Meanwhile, growing geopolitical uncertainty has reinforced energy security as a cornerstone of Poland’s national security.

*** Our weekly Dispatches provide an overview of the most relevant recent and upcoming developments for the shift to climate neutrality in selected European countries, from policy and diplomacy to society and industry. For a bird's-eye view of the country's climate-friendly transition, read the respective 'Guide to'. ***

Stories to watch in the weeks ahead

  • Poland wants voluntary ETS2 – Poland will continue to push for a broader and more flexible reform of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), said climate minister Paulina Hennig-Kloska following a meeting of EU environment ministers in Luxembourg on Monday (12 October). Warsaw is seeking greater EU funding for energy modernisation and investment, including through the Modernisation Fund and the planned Investment Booster. At the same time, the government is opposing a mandatory extension of carbon pricing to buildings and road transport under the ETS2, which member states – including Poland, with some hesitation – had agreed to in 2022. Rather than simply postponing the system’s introduction again, Poland wants the ETS2 to be voluntary for member states. Polish Radio reported that potential support for Warsaw’s push for broader ETS reforms is growing, with representatives of 16 countries taking part in consultations organised by Poland ahead of the meeting. According to the broadcaster, five countries, including Poland, supported including ETS2 in the EU’s broader carbon pricing reform during the meeting in Luxembourg.
  • Energy security is national security – Poland increasingly views its energy system as a key element of national security. Speaking at the Warsaw Security Forum, energy minister Miłosz Motyka stressed that reliable and affordable energy is essential not only for economic prosperity but also for military readiness. “True diversification is not about replacing dependence on one country with dependence on another. It is about having diverse partners, various sources of supply, and greater control over our own energy future,” he added. Reflecting this focus on resilience, state-owned companies Orlen, Enea, PGE, Tauron and KGHM signed an agreement last week to share information on security risks, including cyberattacks, to improve coordination and strengthen the resilience of Poland’s critical infrastructure.

The latest from Poland – last month in recap

  • Fuel price relief – After weeks of deadlock over soaring fuel prices, opposition-backed president Karol Nawrocki has signed a windfall tax on fuel companies’ excess profits into law. He had previously blocked the measure over concerns that applying it retroactively could be unconstitutional. The president said signing the bill would end the keeping of Poles as political “hostages” and called for the immediate reinstatement of fuel price relief. The government, which has long argued that the tax was needed to finance relief measures, responded by reintroducing price caps, lower VAT and excise duties on fuel, which will stay in place until the end of the year. The one-off 60-percent tax on excess profits is expected to raise around four billion zloty (€914 million). Even before the measures were reintroduced on 3 October, Poland had already spent over five billion zloty (€1.14 billion) this year to shield consumers from turmoil in international energy markets triggered by the war in Iran.
  • Updated nuclear strategy – Poland has updated its nuclear strategy. As expected, the revised plan delays the launch of the country’s first nuclear power plant from 2033 to 2036, while the second plant is expected to become operational in 2040. The first plant, with a planned capacity of 3.75 gigawatts (GW), is being developed in Choczewo on the Baltic coast in partnership with US companies Westinghouse and Bechtel, with construction scheduled to begin in 2028. Poland expects to start construction of the second plant in 2032 and will select a strategic partner from companies in the United States, France and Canada next year. Bełchatów and Konin, both in central Poland, are the preferred locations for the second plant due to their existing energy infrastructure and extensive experience in electricity generation. Together, the two plants are expected to have a combined capacity of up to nine GW and supply 15–16 percent of Poland’s electricity in 2040.
  • Private capital for SMRs – A group of prominent Polish businessmen have announced investments in Synthos Green Energy, a company led by Poland’s richest man, Michał Sołowow, to develop small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs). Investors – who are investing 500 million zloty (€114 million) – include delivery giant InPost founder Rafał Brzoska and the CEO of AI voice generator provider ElevenLabs CEO Mati Staniszewski. Combined with 1.35 billion zloty (€310 million) from foreign investors, the funding will support plans to deploy BWRX-300 reactors across Poland, Central and Eastern Europe, and the UK. The investment comes amidst disagreements between Sołowow’s company and state-owned Orlen over their own plans to develop SMRs in Poland.
  • Workforce downsizing in Poland’s coal mining industry  –  State-owned mining firm Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa (JSW), the EU’s largest coking coal producer, is planning to cut 4,248 jobs, or around 21 percent of its workforce, by the end of 2026. The cuts come amidst Poland’s broader shift away from coal and follow a 2025 law designed to facilitate mine closures and workforce reductions by providing severance payments and other support for affected employees.

Alicja's picks – highlights from upcoming events and top reads

  • Forum Energii, a leading Polish energy think tank celebrating its 10th anniversary this year, has published a report reviewing the last decade of Poland’s energy transition, describing it as a period of profound change. In 2015, coal accounted for around 80 percent of the country’s electricity generation; by 2026, its share had fallen to 52 percent, as solar, wind and gas expanded. While Poland remains the EU’s only country generating more than half of its electricity from coal, the report offers a reminder of how far the country has come.
  • According to a report by think tank Instrat, Polish motorists paid an additional 23 billion zloty (€5.24 billion) in fuel costs between March and August due to the war in Iran, despite government measures to cushion the impact.
  • The annual Offshore Wind Poland conference will take place in Warsaw on 17–18 November, as Poland began generating electricity from offshore wind for the first time in its history in 2026.
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