EU’s AI data centre ambitions could put climate targets at risk – analysis
Clean Energy Wire
The EU’s ambitions for catching up on artificial intelligence (AI) could require as much electricity as an entire country like Poland by 2030, undermining the bloc’s climate targets if the demand increase is met with non-renewable energy sources, according to an analysis by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
“Europe aims to compete in the global AI race, but rising electricity demand from data centres threatens to outpace current planning, putting climate goals, economic growth, and AI competitiveness at risk,” the institute said.
The analysis projects that data centres associated with the EU’s “AI Continent Action Plan”, the EU’s strategy to boost homegrown AI infrastructure, could consume up to 168 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity by 2030, roughly equivalent to today’s power demand in Poland or around 5 percent of overall EU consumption.
“There is a serious mismatch between data centre capacity planning and energy supply planning in the EU,” the institute said. “Europe is planning ambitious digital infrastructure without ensuring that the electricity system can support it,” the report’s author, Matilde Ciani, said.
The EU has set a binding target to reduce emissions by at least 55 percent by 2030, but the report underlines the growing tensions between the global AI race and climate objectives. To satisfy data centres’ enormous electricity consumption around the clock, many operators in the US have already opted for building additional gas power plants. In Germany, government critics have warned that additional demand from data centres will derail the country’s targets for rapidly increasing the share of renewables in electricity consumption.
The EU’s AI plan aims to double data centre capacity by 2030. Meeting the additional electricity demand would require that other sectors’ consumption remains constant, but this is unlikely given the rapid uptake of heat pumps and electric cars, the analysis argues. Ciani calls on the EU to systematically link data centre expansion to additional low-carbon electricity supply, strengthen coordination between energy and digital planning, and leverage public-private partnerships to secure renewable generation alongside new AI infrastructure.
Without better aligning the EU’s AI and energy plans, electricity demand could significantly outstrip supply, leading to a “dangerous trilemma” in which the bloc would have to choose between achieving economic growth, climate neutrality, and AI leadership, the analysis warns.