Experiencing extreme heat increases support for Green parties in Europe – study

Experiencing exceptionally warm weather influences voting behaviour across Europe, with hot days heightening climate concerns and resulting in more votes for Green parties, according to a study by the Austria-based International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), published in the scientific journal PNAS. 

The authors analysed data from the European Social Survey, across 25 European countries between 2012 and 2022. They found a link between the number of unusually warm days voters experience before an election and an increased sense of responsibility for climate change, worries about its effects and support for Green parties as well as those parties willing to enter coalitions with them.

Polls show that climate change is currently not a top concern among the EU population, but researchers have generally found no broad rejection of climate action among European voters – though how costs are distributed shapes support.

“Our analysis shows that firsthand experiences of extreme temperatures can shift attitudes and voting behaviour, particularly among groups that are generally less concerned about climate change,” said author Jonas Peisker.

Men with lower levels of education show the greatest shift in voting behaviour following heatwaves, although women and people with higher education remain more likely overall to hold pro-environmental views and vote Green, IIASA said. Workers in the services sector adjusted their voting behaviour more than those in agriculture or manufacturing. Meanwhile, in regions where decarbonisation could worsen economic inequalities, such as those with greenhouse-gas intensive industries, the effect was much weaker. 

“The study makes an important contribution to the question of whether, and to what extent, people respond politically to their direct experience of extreme weather events,” Franziska Quoß, a research associate at the Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences, told the Science Media Center Germany. 

The authors called for policies to support regions that are relatively disadvantaged in the transition away from fossil fuels, with communication highlighting the real-world impacts of climate change and focused on groups that are less engaged. “Exacerbating economic inequalities across and within regions in the process of decarbonisation is likely to further alienate people from a pro-environmental agenda,” said author Roman Hoffmann.