Focus shifts to two more German state votes following far-right win in Saxony-Anhalt

After the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) won the elections in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, the country’s political attention has begun to shift to two upcoming state elections on 20 September in the north-eastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and the city of Berlin. The victory in Saxony-Anhalt, which could result in the first German state led by a right-wing party since the Nazi era, has shaken chancellor Friedrich Merz's federal government and led to international concerns about an extremist resurgence in Europe’s largest economy.

While the AfD is not polling as strongly in the two states as it did ahead of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, where it gained 43.8 percent of the votes, the anti-climate action party still tops the polls in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, narrowly ahead of the Social Democrats (SPD). It also ranks among the strongest parties in Berlin, where the governing conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), as well as the opposition Left Party and the Greens, are in a close race for the German capital’s city government, and poll around 20 percent each.

In coastal state Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the governing SPD under state premier Manuela Schwesig has greatly reduced the AfD’s lead in the past months and reached 32 percent in a recent poll, closely behind the far-right’s 35 percent. Environmental group DUH asked the parties in the state about their climate and energy plans, with the SPD answering that “climate protection is the central benchmark of our energy policy”, and adding that the energy transition offers many economic advantages to the state, which produces twice as much renewable power as it needs. 

The AfD, on the other hand, was not interviewed directly due to its rejection of climate action as an "ideology-driven" measure, DUH said. In its manifesto, the AfD blames the energy transition for higher energy prices, and argues it should not receive any further financial support. Instead, it wants to resume gas trading with Russia through the defunct pipeline Nord Stream 2, which was partly damaged in a sabotage attack shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and which makes landfall in the Baltic Sea state.

In Berlin, climate action and energy policy did not figure directly among the five topics voters consider most important in a June survey by public broadcaster rbb, but transport and mobility ranked second, behind housing. In their election manifestos, the governing CDU and the AfD both positioned themselves as advocates of private cars and reject traffic-calming projects that aim to reduce car use in the country’s largest city. Both also promote the construction of a controversial motorway in the city centre, whereas the Left Party and the Greens both reject the project and aim to strengthen public transport and establish more car-free zones.

In Saxony-Anhalt, meanwhile, the nationalist-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) has agreed to enter into talks with the AfD on cooperating in the state, with energy policy a key topic, according to public broadcaster ARD. The AfD narrowly missed an absolute majority in the state parliament and almost all other parties have ruled out cooperation, invoking the “firewall” concept that prohibits collaborating with the far-right. The only realistic option for the AfD to govern the state therefore lies in forming a minority government tolerated by the BSW.