German climate progress “insufficient” to meet post-2040 targets – leaked government report

Germany must take “further steps toward transformation” to meet its 2040-45 climate targets, which it is currently on track to miss by a significant margin, according to a leaked version of the government’s “Climate Protection Report 2025.”

The 450-page report first obtained by Politico and seen by dpa and AFP is the climate ministry’s “stocktake” of climate action in the country. It evaluates the state of climate progress and identifies areas for improvement to meet federal climate targets, which the ministry is mandated to publish annually under Germany's Climate Action Law.

While the country is on course to meet its overall 2030 emission reduction target, the transport and building sectors are failing to contribute their respective reduction shares, posing both a problem for Germany’s aim to reach net zero emissions by 2045 and for the EU’s objective to reach the same target five years later. Progress in these sectors is “too slow to achieve the 2030 or 2045 targets in time,” the report found.

The ministry’s assessment mirrors projections by the country’s environment agency (UBA), which said earlier this year that Germany was broadly on track to reach its 2030 target of reducing overall emissions by 65 percent compared to 1990 levels, even if the country was increasingly at risk of failing to meet EU-mandated climate targets for individual sectors. UBA also found that Germany is only headed for an 80 percent reduction under current policies by 2040, while the country aims to reduce emissions by 88 percent by that year.

While there is “a continuous and significant decline” in emissions in the transport sector, these reductions are still below what is necessary, as emissions remain stubbornly high, the ministry said. “There is still no sign of a trend reversal in the sense of accelerated reduction,” its report stated, pointing to a greater uptake of electric vehicles as the “most effective starting point” for reducing emissions.

Climate advocates said the report underlined the urgent need to step up climate action. “If the federal government once again admits in its own climate protection report that key climate targets will be missed by a wide margin and yet fails to take effective immediate action, then this is no longer an oversight, but a total failure of climate policy,” said Jürgen Resch, head of environmental advocacy group DUH.

“Germany is not only jeopardising its own goals, but also undermining European commitments,” Resch said. He called on the government to implement an immediate strategy for reducing transport emissions, including introducing a speed limit on autobahns and threatening climate litigation if the government does not take action.

A recent report compiled by a group of government advisors found that extensive subsidies are needed to clean up Germany's transport sector. However, clean transport advocates said the "half-hearted" proposals revealed a lack of courage to touch fossil fuel subsidies or limit the use of combustion engine technology.