German Social Democrats suffer another defeat as Merz's CDU wins western state election

Germany's Social Democrats (SPD) suffered yet another heavy loss at the ballot, losing the top spot in a state election in their traditional stronghold Rhineland-Palatinate to the local branch of chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democrats (CDU). According to preliminary results, the SPD received about 26 percent of the vote, nearly ten percentage points less than in the previous election in 2021. The result is set to end 35 years of SPD leadership in the western state with about four million inhabitants.

The CDU received 31 percent, an increase of about three percentage points. The vote also marked a major success for the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD). With 19.5 percent, the AfD more than doubled its share of the votes to achieve its best result in a western German state so far. The local Green Party saw slight losses and secured about 8 percent, while the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) dropped out of the state parliament after failing to clear the five-percent threshold. 

In a separate runoff election in Bavaria’s capital Munich, the SPD suffered another setback: For the first time in 42 years, the centre-left party lost the mayor’s office in the country's third-largest city as voters picked a Green Party candidate.

These defeats for the SPD come just two weeks after the party almost dropped out of parliament in the southwestern state of Baden-Württemberg. The results are expected to fuel a leadership debate in the federal SPD under finance minister Lars Klingbeil, as the country gears up for three more state elections after the summer break. In the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, Germany's oldest party is polling near the five-percent threshold. In northeastern Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and in the capital Berlin, a city state, the SPD still fares better, but could also shed votes if the traditional workers' party fails to buck the trend. 

The CDU’s victory in Rhineland-Palatinate provides some relief to chancellor Merz. The conservative party narrowly lost to the Greens in Baden-Württemberg earlier this month, while satisfaction with Merz’s coalition government with the SPD, as well as the chancellor’s individual approval ratings, remain low. 

The importance of climate and environment issues for voters in the state declined significantly compared to the previous vote, according to surveys, while voters said they care most about the economy and social security issues. However, climate still ranked ahead of immigration as an election issue, the results also showed.