Government expects decrease in electricity use by 2030 despite e-mobility

Germany's government expects the country will use less electricity in 2030, even though renewable power is meant to replace fossil fuels in many sectors from transport to heating, reports Karsten Wiedemann in specialist publication energate. In response to a parliamentary enquiry, the ministry for economics and industry forecast that power consumption will be slightly below today's level at 590 TWh in ten years, but adds that "substantial efforts" will be required to increase efficiency. Oliver Krischer, deputy leader of the Greens parliamentary group, called the government forecast ridiculous "especially because there are no significant measures to increase efficiency”.

The government’s official goal is to reduce gross power consumption by 10 percent by 2020 (compared to 2008 levels), but Germany has only reduced it by about 4 percent by 2018. In addition, Germany plans to achieve a 65 percent renewables share in gross electricity consumption by 2030. The government's renewable expansion plans spelled out in its 2030 climate package should be sufficient to reach the target if power consumption declines, writes Wiedemann. But they will be insufficient if power demand increases, which will depend strongly on its use in sectors such as mobility. The German Renewable Energy Federation BEE expects power demand will rise to 740 TWh in 2030, which would require much more renewables installations to hit the 65 percent share, writes Wiedemann. The German Wind Energy Association BWE said the government power demand forecast suggests it had given up on ambitions to electrify other sectors.