Three in four German municipal utilities say 2045 climate-neutral heating goal unrealistic – survey

Three in four German municipal heating suppliers believe the country's target of climate-neutral heating by 2045 is unrealistic under current conditions, according to a survey by the association of municipal utilities (VKU).

None of the participating utilities rated the goal "very realistic" and only 7 percent called it "realistic", while 51 percent said it was "unrealistic" and a further 24 percent "very unrealistic". The VKU surveyed 757 Stadtwerke and municipal energy suppliers, of which 225 responded – a return rate of just under 30 percent.

Germany aims to become climate neutral by 2045, five years ahead of the EU-wide target. Decarbonising heat is one of the hardest parts of that shift, as buildings still rely heavily on gas and oil, and switching to heat pumps, district heating or green gases requires huge investments. Municipal utilities, which are often partly or wholly owned by towns and cities, operate most of the country's district heating networks.

Despite the timeline doubts, VKU managing director Ingbert Liebing stressed that municipal utilities remain committed to the heating transition. "The heat transition strengthens our security of supply, because we become less dependent on fossil imports. This protects our economy and consumers from rising prices on the gas and oil markets," he said. Liebing welcomed the government's recent outline for a new district heating law but urged parliament to pass it before the end of the year to give companies planning certainty.

Unresolved legal questions were named as the biggest obstacle: 86 percent of respondents said clarity on rules was essential for further investment. Many were also critical of the government's overhaul of the building energy law, which took effect in July and scrapped the requirement for new heating systems to run on 65 percent renewable energy: half of respondents said the reform brought "neither progress nor setback" because key legal questions remain open, while 36 percent called it a setback nationally.

The survey also points to a looming investment surge: every second utility expects spending on climate-neutral heating to more than double by 2030 compared with 2024. Yet 56 percent said existing funding conditions were insufficient, and 61 percent found the legal framework unclear.