District heating to play major role in large German cities – reports
Clean Energy Wire
Large German cities are betting on district heating as a central technology of their future clean heat supply, two research reports have shown.
A report by the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development (BBSR) "shows that the proportion of heat supplied via district heating networks in major cities is set to increase significantly,” the authors wrote.
The institute analysed the 72 available district heating plans from Germany’s cities with more than 100,000 residents – out of a total of 83, with the remaining 11 missing the deadline to finalise their plan by 30 June – and found that those with specific figures for district heating networks envisage a growing share of district heating in future. In more than half of these 39 cities, it will provide more than 50 percent of heat supply. The average share today is around 22 percent.
Germany aims to achieve climate neutrality by 2045. Decarbonising heating is central to this goal, as the majority of Germany’s buildings are still heated with fossil fuels. District heating can supply densely populated areas with climate friendly heat, particularly in areas where solutions like heat pumps are only feasible to a limited extent.
The plans provide an overview of the current state of heat supply and heat consumption locally and outline pathways to climate-neutral heating, with more than half of large cities aiming to achieve this by 2045, and around a third targeting 2040. The depth and detail of district heating plans varies significantly, Martin Ammon from BBSR told Clean Energy Wire in June.
A separate report by think tank Öko-Institut showed that while bigger and more densely populated cities bet on district heating, decentralised heat pumps will play a more important role in smaller and medium-sized municipalities. The researchers analysed 380 heating plans which cover 940 municipalities, all of which plan to phase out natural gas and heating oil to a large extent by 2045. Heat pumps are expected to account for around 42 percent of the heat supply by 2045, whilst district heating (heat networks) is expected to account for around 37 percent.
"Heat pumps and district heating networks form the backbone of the local heating transition," said researcher Marc Stobbe. More than half of the district heating plans lack details on how heat for district heating networks will be generated in future. Where such details are available, the most common combination is heat pumps and biogenic energy sources, said Öko Institut.
The BBSR analysis also showed that many large cities “are making ambitious assumptions” on how to achieve a clean heating system in future, the authors said. Assumptions about energy efficiency renovations rates were particularly optimistic, with many of the plans assuming an annual refurbishment rate of two percent, when actual rates for buildings nationwide stood at less than one percent in 2025, they added. This is important as more energy efficient homes reduce heating demand. “Whether these assumptions can be realised depends largely on investment, the availability of skilled workers and capacity within the construction sector,” report author Andrea Arnold-Drmic said.
Just over a quarter of Germany’s 10,775 municipalities had completed a heating plan by mid-2026. Cities with over 100,000 residents were required to do so by 30 June this year, and smaller local authorities have until mid-2028 to submit a plan.
In July, the German government adopted a new version of the country’s heating law, removing the requirement for new heating systems to include a minimum renewable energy share. While this allows homeowners and businesses to install new fossil-fuel heating systems, doing so might not be feasible in the longer-term because some municipal heating plans, which are non-binding, aim to decommission municipal gas networks.