Municipal plans prepare Germany’s path to clean heating, but depth varies widely – researcher
The Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development (BBSR) supports Germany’s buildings ministry with scientific policy advice around housing, construction and urban development.
Martin Ammon heads BBSR’s housing, climate action and construction team, where he analyses municipal heating plans, the socio-economic aspects of climate action, and climate adaptation in the buildings sector, as well as the climate impact of the construction industry.
Clean Energy Wire: Municipal heat plans are a central information tool for Germany’s transition to climate friendly heating – but what exactly do they encompass?
Martin Ammon: Municipal heat plans largely follow the same structure. They comprise an analysis of the current situation, an analysis of potential, a target scenario and the designation of supply areas – in line with the legal requirements of the Heat Planning Act (Wärmeplanungsgesetz). However, the level of detail of individual plans varies considerably.
Some plans are highly condensed, offering a limited insight into municipal planning for future heat supply in just a few pages. Others set out, within a wide range of comprehensive scenarios, how the future of the heating supply within the local authority is expected to develop up to a target year – no later than 2045. Assumptions, calculation methods and other details are explained in full so that the results can be verified.
Overall, heating plans provide an overview of the current state of heat supply and heat consumption within a municipality. They also examine the potential for expanding renewable energy, broken down by individual source, to show the extent to which the local authority can supply its own renewable heat. The target scenario then describes the pathway to climate-neutral heat supply, covering projected developments in heat demand and how that demand could be met through renewables and unavoidable waste heat. Area-specific allocations present the heat planning cartographically at a small-scale local level. Most plans also include a set of measures detailing the next steps for implementation.
How do theoretical scenarios outlining different heating options for an area interact with the implementation and expansion of district heating networks or decommissioning of gas distribution pipelines?
The individual scenarios within a heat plan map out different development pathways – including the expansion of heat networks and the rollout of electricity-based heating systems, particularly heat pumps. These scenarios rest on a range of assumptions, including renovation rates and connection rates to heat networks. The municipal heat plan is a strategic planning tool, but is not legally binding.
The overarching goal of achieving climate-neutral heat supply by 2045 at the latest remains unchanged.
When it comes to the expansion or construction of new heat networks, municipalities do have the option – under state law and local statutes – of introducing mandatory connection and use obligations. These obligations can be applied in the interest of climate protection.
As with district heating networks, gas networks require a minimum level of gas consumption to cover investment and operating costs. If, for example, an increasing number of gas consumers switch to heat pumps and thus to electricity-based heating systems, fewer users are left to bear the costs of the gas network, which will push up network charges.
Municipal heat plans can project how household connections will develop and map out the pathway for the gradual decommissioning of the gas network. As part of this process, an assessment is made as to whether a switch to hydrogen is feasible or whether the gas network must be decommissioned.
How do municipal heating plans influence the millions of individual investment decisions by homeowners or businesses? Once these plans are public, what do they mean for the people whose area they cover?
While municipal heat plans do not have a legal binding force, they allow private households and businesses to understand what their future heat supply might look like – for example, whether they live or work in an area where a district heating network could be built. The potential analysis also highlights which renewable energy sources could potentially be used for heating.
Beyond the specifics of any individual heat plan, municipal heat planning raises broader awareness of how a municipality's heat supply may develop. For consumers, this makes clear that investing in fossil fuel heating systems carries risks – for example, parts of the gas network may be decommissioned well before 2045, meaning that gas-run boilers will no longer be able to operate.
Heat plans to date have generally assumed a steady decline in fossil fuel heating systems.
What effect will the current reforms to Germany’s law to phase out fossil-based heating have on municipal heating plans?
The ongoing reform of Germany's Buildings Energy Act (GEG) into a new Building Modernisation Act (GMG) changes the pathway for decarbonising heat supply and permits a broader range of heating options than before. However, the overarching goal of achieving climate-neutral heat supply by 2045 at the latest remains unchanged.
While heat plans to date have generally assumed a steady decline in fossil fuel heating systems, the reform could slow that process. A full reversal seems rather unlikely, as the future operation of fossil fuel heating systems will require the increasing use of renewable fuels such as biomethane – whose availability and cost remain uncertain.
What happens if a large municipality misses the 30 June 2026 deadline to submit their heating plan?
The Heat Planning Act requires Germany's federal states to ensure that heat planning is carried out across their territory – by 30 June 2026 for municipalities with more than 100,000 inhabitants, and by 30 June 2028 for the remaining municipalities. The federal law does not provide for any sanctions if a state fails to ensure that all municipalities complete their heat plans by the deadline. In line with the federal law, the state laws do not specify any penalties for local authorities should the heat plan not be in place by the specified deadline.