Dispatch from the European Union | August '25

In cooperation with Carbon Pulse.

Stories to watch in the weeks ahead

• Far-right bad poker: Talks on the EU’s proposed 2040 emission reduction target were nearly derailed after the far-right Patriots for Europe group, newly formed and now the third-largest in the European Parliament, used its position to try to kill the policy outright. Their appointed lead negotiator, Czech MEP Ondrej Knotek, drew criticism from across the political spectrum for proposing to reject the target before serious talks had even begun. In response, mainstream groups – including the centre-right EPP, Socialists, Renew, Greens, and the Left – struck a deal to fast-track negotiations and sideline the far right. EU environment ministers are expected to agree on their stance on 18 September, after which Parliament will vote on its official position. This timeline keeps the EU on track to finalise the 2040 target before the COP30 UN climate summit in November.
• Summer break: Don’t expect much activity in EU policymaking over the next few weeks, as most politicians are taking time off for the traditional August break. However, things will pick up again in September.
  The UN asked for earlier submissions of climate pledges for 2025-2035 (Nationally Determined Contribution, or NDC) to avoid delays in the final run-up to COP30. For the EU, the 2040 target should have fed into the bloc’s NDC. Due to the delay, however, the 2040 target may not shape EU international obligations as much as originally intended – a result of political and procedural timing not lining up neatly.

The latest in EU policymaking – last month in recap

• Next EU budget: The European Commission unveiled its plans for the next long-term EU budget, the seven-year Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). It is by far the largest yet at two trillion euros covering 2028 to 2034. A total of 35 percent of this sum will be dedicated to “programmes and activities on climate action and environmental objectives,” for an estimated total of 700 billion euros.
  An I4CE study, however, found the sum barely affects the gap toward what is really needed for climate action. The researchers said that the EU should instead mobilise 842 billion euros annually to hit 2030 goals. With the NextGenerationEU post-Covid recovery funding scheme ending next year, climate cash is tight.
  The controversial package still requires unanimous approval from the Council and Parliament, and, where relevant, ratification by national parliaments.  The Commission promised it “will do everything in its power to support a swift agreement”, but EU lawmakers and national governments are expected to propose substantial changes during budget negotiations.
• An unfeasible pledge: On 28 July, the EU pledged to buy 750 billion dollars’ worth of US oil, liquid natural gas (LNG), and nuclear fuels over the coming three years – a technically unfeasible move that contradicts the bloc’s climate goals, experts have said. Announced as part of a broader US-EU trade deal aimed at avoiding a transatlantic trade war, the agreement includes 15 percent US tariffs on EU imports.
  While von der Leyen touted the move as a step toward energy security, specifics on how the purchases will be made remain unclear. EU gas demand has also been falling, with LNG imports dropping 19 percent in 2024 compared to the previous year, as shown by the European LNG Tracker from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. “This is not an energy security pact, it’s a fossil fuel and military package,” said climate researcher Yamina Saheb. 
• Landmark ICJ ruling: In a historic advisory opinion issued on 23 July, the International Court of Justice ruled that nations bear the responsibility to prevent climate‑related harms abroad under international law. Governments must take all necessary steps — including emission reductions — to avoid environmental damage. The advisory opinion could inform EU litigation strategies and reinforce legal obligations in upcoming climate legislation.
  The ICJ’s decision means the EU's push to water down climate policies may breach both EU and international law, according to Swedish law firm Cirio. The lawyers noted that the so-called Omnibus simplification package – legislative proposals aimed at simplifying and streamlining regulations, particularly in the area of sustainability reporting and corporate due diligence – may face scrutiny over its suggested rollbacks. David Frydlinger, partner at Cirio and author of the analysis, said: “This means that any rollback in ambition, including the EU’s Omnibus plans, now carries even tougher legal consequences. Unless EU policymakers bring strong proof that these plans are not weakening the EU’s climate ambitions, they’re likely to be struck down if challenged in court.”
• Talks with Japan and China: On 23 July, Brussels and Tokyo reaffirmed their strategic climate partnership ahead of COP30, supporting carbon‑pricing frameworks and pledging investments to bolster natural‑gas supply security. The statement pledged unity on market‑based mechanisms, energy resilience, and private sector collaboration.
  Similarly, Brussels and Beijing issued a joint declaration on 24 July, committing to new climate plans for the years leading up to and including 2035, and expanded cooperation on carbon markets. Critics have argued that the pact lacks detail on fossil fuel phase‑out timelines and financial support for emerging economies, but experts have said that even a minor agreement between the two was already a crucial step in the right direction.

Emanuela’s picks:

• Summer heatwaves: the latest Climate Bulletin by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has already reported that June 2025 was the third-warmest June on record globally;
• Back to school: The European Parliament’s calendar is empty for August. The Environment committee (ENVI) will discuss Czech far-right MEP Knotek’s report on the 2040 target on 4 September. A vote will take place on the contents of the report on 23 September, with the deadline for amendments set for 8 September. The full European Parliament will eventually vote on the text in October.
• EU’s clock ticking: All updated NDCs must be submitted to the UN in September, but the EU might take longer to hand in their plans. All good as long as it happens before COP30, although any delay threatens the bloc’s international reputation. See Carbon Pulse's portal, tracking the plans as they come.