Dispatch from Poland | November ‘25

Stories to watch in the weeks ahead

• New president’s first months in office – Nawrocki’s first 100 days in office have been marked by far greater tension with Poland’s parliamentary coalition government than under his predecessor. He has vetoed 13 bills, including three on energy and environment, further constraining a government already struggling to push the energy transition forward. He did, however, sign an amendment supporting offshore wind development, suggesting he is not fully opposed to renewables but rather seeks greater control over the shape of the transition. His promise of a referendum over the EU’s Green Deal remains symbolic, with no questions or timetable scheduled. Friction between Nawrocki and the government is likely to continue until Poland’s next general election in two years.
• Coal phase-out – A draft bill introducing measures to support Poland’s transition away from coal, approved by the government at the end of October, is expected to be vetoed by Nawrocki. The bill would ease mine closures, provide severance payments to miners, and support redevelopment in former mining regions. Nawrocki, who campaigned on defending coal as “black gold”, has pledged to maintain domestic coal production. It may take several months before the bill reaches the president’s desk, as it must first go through the entire legislative process, including approval by parliament.
• What to do with out-of-work miners? – Poland’s mining sector still employs over 70,000 workers (about 30,000 more than in the much more populous US), and as the time to close the unprofitable mines approaches, so does the debate over what to do with the miners, a professional group that still commands a lot of respect in Polish society. Poland’s deputy prime minister and defence minister, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, recently suggested that the defence industry, which has attracted substantial investments as Poland increases arms spending, could become an alternative to the declining mining industry and one of the pillars of future economic development, reported Energetyka24.
• First offshore auction – Poland’s first offshore wind auction is scheduled for 17 December. At least three projects with a combined capacity of 3.5 gigawatts (GW) are expected to compete, website wnp.pl reported. Although Poland currently has no operational offshore wind farms, it plans to award up to 4 GW of capacity in this tender. Winning bidders will receive contracts for difference (CfDs), which guarantee a fixed electricity price: if market prices fall below the agreed reference price, the state compensates for the difference; if they rise above it, the surplus is paid back to the state.

The latest from Poland – last month in recap

• ETS 2 – EU environment ministers and the European Parliament agreed to delay the new ETS2, an emissions-pricing system for heating and transport, from 2027 to 2028, a decision that Poland hailed as a success. Analysts called the delay a “pyrrhic victory,” warning that Poland remains poorly prepared for the ETS2 and will be among the countries most economically affected once it is implemented. Poland was also one of only four countries to vote against the EU’s new goal to cut emissions by 90 percent by 2040, arguing that the target should remain flexible and subject to review.
• Electricity prices – President Nawrocki has proposed a bill to cut electricity prices by about a third for households and a fifth for businesses by reducing distribution fees, scaling back renewable energy certificates, removing certain surcharges, and lowering VAT. The plan, which differs from his earlier campaign pledge to reject EU green taxes and leave the ETS, is estimated to cost between 11.5–14 billion złoty annually (2.7 to 3.3 million euros) and would rely partly on ETS revenues to offset the expense. It is possible, however, that the ruling coalition will reject the president’s proposal, seeing it as yet another cost in an already tight fiscal situation. In the first half of this year, Poland recorded the EU’s third-fastest rise in household electricity prices.
• Nature protection – Nawrocki vetoed the creation of Poland’s first new national park in 24 years, arguing it would hinder economic development, restrict river transport, and threaten national security. The government, which has pledged to expand Poland’s national parks, currently covering about one percent of the country, approved the Lower Oder Valley National Park to bolster environmental protection along the German border. It condemned the president’s veto as politically driven and based on false claims, pointing out that key waterways had already been excluded from the park to address concerns about shipping.
• Gas imports – Poland has received its 400th liquefied natural gas (LNG) delivery at the Świnoujście terminal, which soon will be celebrating its tenth anniversary, underscoring the facility’s central role in reducing reliance on Russian gas. Poland aims to become a regional gas hub supplying neighbouring countries. To meet anticipated demand, work has begun on a second LNG terminal in Gdańsk, slated to open in 2028 with an annual capacity of 6.1 billion cubic meters (bcm), about a third of Poland’s current demand. This will significantly expand Poland’s import capacity beyond the 8.3 bcm at Świnoujście.

Alicja’s picks – highlights from upcoming events and top reads

• A brief by the Clean Air Task Force, a global climate non-profit, stresses that clean hydrogen is key for Poland’s industrial decarbonisation. It says that hydrogen produced with renewables alone is currently too costly and intermittent, recommending the prioritisation of low-carbon hydrogen produced with carbon capture and storage (CCS) in heavy industry.
• An article on Energetyka24 and a podcast by energy analyst Jakub Wiech have renewed attention to an EY report published earlier this year, which found that Poland – already Europe’s largest copper producer – may hold up to 165 million tonnes of copper, more than four times previous estimates. Because copper is essential for energy-transition technologies, IT and defence, Wiech notes that, if confirmed, such reserves could have major significance for the Polish economy.
• Ahead of COP30, I spoke with Poland’s top climate negotiator, Katarzyna Wrona, about Warsaw’s message and goals for this year’s conference in Brazil, which ends today, on 21 November.