District heating could help decarbonise nearly half of all homes in Germany

Almost one in two homes in Germany could be heated with district heating by 2045, according to an analysis of the country’s 401 administrative districts and cities by consultancy Prognos. “In nearly half of all districts, the conditions for expanding the district heating network and achieving decarbonisation are good or very good,” the consultancy said. 

All cities in municipalities in Germany are required to present heating plans to determine which technologies are most suitable for which locations. Large cities must provide these plans by the end of June, while small towns have a later deadline until 2028. 

Prognos looked at the local building stock, heating demand and energy infrastructure, concluding that there is a high potential for using district heating across the country, though conditions differ locally. Expansion was found to be challenging in seven percent of districts. According to the consultancy, the district heating share could rise from currently ten percent to 48 percent, covering about 20 million households. 

Districts in northern and eastern Germany and major cities like Berlin or Hamburg feature especially favourable conditions for expanding the heating technology. However, southern regions could substantially increase their use of district heating, the consultancy said. Many municipalities had to decide whether they want to enter district heating at all to get the required infrastructure into place.

Hamburg, the country’s second largest city, presented its heating plan earlier this week. The city that aims to become climate neutral by 2040 already plans to cover 57 percent of its heating demand with district heating or other centralised networks. However, for the remaining 43 percent of demand, accounting for 78 percent of buildings, heat pumps would be the best solution, the city’s Senate said.

Densely populated cities usually have the most to gain from expanding district heating, Prognos added. In 55 cities, the share could be brought to more than 75 percent if their potential is fully realised. In many rural regions, however, technologies such as heat pumps or wood pellet heating could be more appropriate solutions for decarbonising the heating supply. 

The consultancy also looked into available options for decarbonising district heating generation itself, using technologies such as geothermal energy, industrial waste heat or solar thermal energy. “These local heat sources are usually exploitable at low costs.” However, about one fifth of districts lacks adequate access to local renewable power sources, it added.