Germany’s new coalition risks derailing climate goals with "inadequate" policies - researchers

Germany’s new coalition government could derail the country’s climate targets and reduce emissions less than previously expected, according to the Climate Action Tracker (CAT).

CAT, an independent scientific group that tracks government climate action against the Paris Agreement, said the coalition agreement between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Social Democrats (SPD) would “deprioritise and undermine climate policy across the board.” 

The resarchers said the new government's plans generally were "inadequate" with a view to legally binding emissions reduction targets. This included the decision to introduce 20 gigawatts (GW) of gas-fired power capacity by 2030 — double the previous government’s plans — and to approve new gas field developments in the North Sea. CAT warned these moves risk locking in future carbon emissions.

While Germany’s share of renewables in the electricity supply remains high, CAT said policies, including to review and possibly reduce land area reserved for wind energy could slow expansion.

The group also criticised transport policy, such as the rollback of electric vehicle sales targets and increased aviation subsidies, saying it sent mixed signals. It flagged the planned repeal of the Buildings Energy Act, which aims to replace oil and gas heating with renewables, as a setback for low-carbon technologies.

The coalition agreement does not raise Germany’s 2030 emissions reduction ambition, the researchers said. Meanwhile, forests, once a key carbon sink in Germany’s climate plans, have become a net source of emissions, further complicating the path to climate neutrality by 2045.

Still, CAT noted Germany has a strong legally binding climate framework at home that is backed by EU regulation. It pointed to continued coal phase-out efforts, strong solar growth, and support for zero-carbon industrial investments as “positive policy developments”.