Germany could lose 730 bln euros and nearly half a million jobs by 2070 if it fails to adopt green economy – report

The German economy could suffer climate change-related damage totalling 730 billion euros in the next 50 years if countermeasures are not taken early enough, a new report by consultancy services company Deloitte has claimed. Using model-based scenario analyses, the study examined the economic consequences if CO2 emissions are not contained, as well as the consequences if a CO2 neutral economy is adopted. The report, titled Germany’s Turning Point: Accelerating New Growth on the Path to Net Zero, predicts that unchecked CO2 emissions and rising temperatures will lead to lower gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates up to the year 2070, resulting in severe economic damage, including the loss of up to 470,000 jobs. Various factors are analysed, from land and agricultural losses to declines in productivity. “In our base scenario, we assume that, in the event of inaction, temperatures will rise globally by three degrees by the end of the century,” says Alexander Börsch, chief economist at Deloitte Germany. “The economic damage caused by this development has so far hardly been taken into account in economic analyses and long-term growth forecasts. The classic 'business as usual' scenario makes little sense in view of the expected damage.” The study also outlines long-term opportunities for timely investments in climate neutrality. There will be substantial economic advantages if Germany invests significantly in transforming its economy in the coming years; makes a contribution to the global 1.5 degree target, and becomes climate-neutral by 2050 at the latest. The investments would need to mostly be aimed at adaptations to decarbonisation in industry as well as the switch to renewable energy sources, including the increasing use of green hydrogen.

Germany is currently aiming to become greenhouse gas neutral by 2045. It has set the preliminary targets of cutting emissions by at least 65 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, and 88 percent by 2040. A recent analysis by the Society for Economic Structural Research (GWS) commissioned by Greenpeace Germany, looking at 25 different climate protection scenarios, shows that ambitious climate protection can strengthen the German economy and create jobs.