Average temperature in Germany has risen faster than previously thought – meteorologists

Temperatures in Germany have increased at a quicker rate than previously thought, researchers from the country’s meteorological service DWD have found. The rise since 1881, when measurements began, was previously believed to have been 1.9 degrees Celsius – but the DWD’s latest climate status report found that temperatures had actually risen by 2.5 degrees on average.

The meteorologists had initially relied on a linear model that uses the average temperatures of previous decades to determine the warming rate. “But the climate system is not linear,” DWD researcher Andreas Walter told news agency dpa in an article published by newspaper Tagesspiegel.

Scientists in recent years have observed a disproportionate rise in temperatures, indicating that the linear model failed to account for accelerations in the warming rate, Walter said. The DWD, therefore, had instead opted for the so-called Loess-procedure, which uses more data points that include short-term fluctuations in all directions for a better approximation of the curve’s trajectory. The DWD says this method will lead to better predictions about future temperature developments that can illustrate the effects of climate action measures more accurately.  

The threshold in the Paris Climate Agreement - limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees - was breached globally for the first time in 2024. However, it will only be classified as a target miss if average temperatures exceed this threshold for several years.

Germany, like much of Europe, is going through its first major heatwave of 2025 and is already experiencing the effects of a prolonged drought earlier in the year. Many states have issued water use restrictions. Authorities in the east, south and west of the country have restricted the use of public water from lakes, wells, and rivers, dpa reported in a separate Tagesspiegel article.