Designated German climate minister could push transition with experience bridging political divide
Germany’s climate minister-in-waiting Carsten Schneider could play a crucial role in shaping the future of the country’s energy transition with the help of his experience in bridging political divide in eastern states, which have had to deal with fundamental changes after reunification.
The Social Democrat (SPD) was expected to play a bigger role in the new government – especially to represent the interests of eastern states – but his appointment as environment minister came as a surprise due to his lack of experience and expertise in climate policy.
Following the coalition’s shock failure to elect conservative Friedrich Merz as chancellor in a first vote in parliament, the full cabinet’s future remains uncertain. However, if Merz gets elected, Schneider is set to become the country’s next Minister for the Environment, Climate and Nature Protection and Nuclear Safety.
He would enter office at a challenging time and be responsible for putting the country on a path towards the target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 65 percent by 2030, compared to 1990 levels. The low-hanging fruits of emissions reduction efforts have largely been reaped. As the transition to a climate-friendly society is increasingly impacting the daily lives of Germans, it becomes more difficult to push ahead with efforts to replace fossil fuels, especially in sectors like buildings and transport. Schneider can also no longer bet on wide backing for more ambition from large parts of society, as was true in the early years of student climate protests before the Covid pandemic.
The new government has signalled it will continue the country’s landmark energy transition without major adjustments and stick to existing climate targets, but challenges abound as Germany must be put on track to reaching climate neutrality by 2045. The new government is required by law to present a climate action programme with measures that ensure Germany reaches its climate targets within the first 12 months of the legislative period’s start, so by the end of March 2026.
Schneider faces an early climate policy test on 15 May, when the government-appointed Council of Experts on Climate Change presents its assessment of emissions data for Germany. The council has spent the past two months analysing the emissions projections of the Federal Environment Agency (UBA), which showed that the country is headed for a costly EU climate target miss. If the experts say that Germany is projected to overshoot its climate targets until 2030, the new government must present additional climate action measures before the year is out.
Rooted in eastern Germany, Schneider has experience navigating political divide
Schneider, who hails from the eastern state of Thuringia, does have one big advantage as he faces his daunting in-tray. He will enter office with ample experience in regional development and navigating political divides.
As minister of state for Eastern Germany in the last government, he focused on how a population that had already dealt with massive changes following the German reunification was now being asked to face the challenges of the energy transition. The separation of Germany into East and West ended more than three decades ago, but the divide's legacy can still be felt today in many aspects of life, including climate and energy policy. Schneider has welcomed policies designed to increase acceptance among the population, such as requiring wind park operators to share profits with the local communities.
Schneider’s ministry will also have to ensure a smooth introduction of the EU’s second emissions trading system (ETS 2) on fuels used in transport and heating. While Germany already has a national CO2 price on these fuels – making it less vulnerable than other European countries – experts warn that the switch to the EU system could lead to price jumps and must be accompanied with just transition measures to protect low-income households and enable them to participate in the transition. The 2018 ‘yellow vest’ protests in France in response to a similar surcharge on fuel prices still reverberate in the EU as a reminder of the potential for disruption, and for exploitation by various actors, of climate policy.
The designated minister has also had to deal with the rising support for the far-right, extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is especially strong in the country’s eastern states. The AfD – like other populist parties across Europe – opposes ambitious climate action and has risen to become the leading party, or runner-up in national polls.
[Read a CLEW interview with Schneider: Populists pose threat to prosperity of energy transition “pioneer” Eastern Germany – government official]
Schneider has said he would seek compromise. "One of the major challenges we face in Germany is to succeed in anchoring environmental and climate policy in society as a whole, so that it is a collective project and not one that causes social division," Schneider told public broadcaster Phoenix at the signing of the coalition treaty.
Schneider, who has been an SPD lawmaker in the Bundestag since 1998, is an expert in budget policy issues. He was his parliamentary group’s budget policy spokesperson for almost a decade, a period which included the 2008 global financial crisis. He is part of the SPD’s more conservative “Seeheimer Kreis” faction. He will also have to navigate what could be difficult internal discussions on key climate action technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), parts of which remain controversial within the SPD.
Schneider to lead environment ministry with key climate responsibility
Schneider could benefit from the reshuffling of climate policy responsibilities: the new government is reversing key institutional changes introduced in 2021, when the last government had raised the profile of climate action by making it a responsibility of the economy ministry at the national level, and the foreign office for international climate policy. Under the new leadership, national and international climate policy will return to the environment ministry.
It remains to be seen how impactful the decision is going to be. While details of the distribution of responsibilities for climate action have yet to be decided, it is clear that the topic has largely been mainstreamed across all policy fields. The transport ministry will have to implement necessary changes to get the sector on track for emissions reduction targets, while the buildings ministry must push climate-friendly construction, and the energy ministry is responsible for the expansion of renewables or the electricity grid.
One field will definitely become part of Schneider’s portfolio: international climate policy. Table.Media had reported the decision to strip the foreign office of this responsibility. Schneider’s ministry will once again lead the German government delegations at UN climate change conferences, the so-called COPs.
Schneider himself has little international experience, but several media reported that he has decided to make Jochen Flasbarth state secretary in the environment ministry. Flasbarth is an international climate policy expert with a wide network among governments, international organisations, businesses and NGOs in the field, having led the German delegation at several UN climate change conferences.
Schneider must seek compromise – or assert himself on climate within the government
Schneider now faces the difficult task of finding compromises with others in the cabinet, or – if needed – asserting himself on climate policy, especially vis-à-vis conservative colleagues such as transport minister Patrick Schnieder.
Making the environment ministry once again Germany’s “climate ministry” could mean that other departments put the responsibility for reaching emissions targets on to Schneider’s team, wrote Table.Media. “The traditional conflicts between the one ‘green’ ministry and many other ministries are inevitable,” wrote the news service.
Schneider to represent Germany on key EU climate policy decisions
The budding government’s coalition agreement lays out several tasks for Schneider to tackle in the coming months and years, including efforts to include negative emissions in the EU’s climate target framework, as well as allowing countries to count climate projects abroad towards the EU emissions reduction goals.
At the EU level, many climate policy decisions are taken in meetings of member state environment ministers, where Schneider is set to represent Germany.
One of the first issues is a decision on the European Union’s 2040 climate target, where a proposal by the European Commission has been delayed by several months. The necessary reform of the union's climate law will still have to be negotiated by member state governments and the European Parliament. The target will also form the basis of the EU's 2035 climate ambition, due to be submitted under the Paris Agreement by September 2025.
