Parties split on climate as Dutch head to polls

The next government in the Netherlands faces substantial challenges in climate and energy policy.

The country is not on track to reaching its 2030 climate target of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions by 55 percent, compared to 1990 levels. Based on the current policy trajectory, there is less than a five percent chance that the country will achieve this reduction, according to The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL).

Whoever triumphs in the election will have to deal with electricity network congestion, which is one of the major bottlenecks for the energy transition. Thousands of businesses are waiting to connect to the Dutch grid, as well as households planning to install a wallbox to charge EVs. The country was quick to electrify critical parts of its economy after the Groningen gas field closed in 2024. The Netherlands was so reliant on its gas resources that power grid updates have not kept pace, according to TenneT, the national power grid operator. Congestion is a problem in neighbouring states as well, so the Netherlands serves as an “early warning” for other EU countries as the speed of electrification increases, reported the Financial Times.

On 5 June 2025, the government collapsed after the far-right PVV withdrew from the coalition over a dispute about immigration policy. A few months later, the centre-right NSC also left the coalition, leaving a minority government of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB).

The VVD and BBB form a caretaker cabinet that can make decisions, except on so-called “controversial topics”. The House of Representatives declares certain topics as controversial so that a caretaker cabinet cannot make important political decisions while the interim elections and the formation of a new cabinet are still pending.

New elections are scheduled for 29 October. Forming the next coalition will likely take months; talks after the last three elections each lasted more than 200 days.

Although the PVV is once again the biggest party in the polls, almost all other parties have ruled out collaborating with them, making it unlikely that they will be part of the next government coalition.

High-polling parties disagree on many issues. The Netherlands, like many European countries, has seen increasing political fragmentation and a rise of right-wing populist parties, many of which reject strong climate action.

Timeline of the elections

• 5 June, 2025: The Dutch government resigns after the largest party, the PVV, withdraws from the coalition due to disagreements over policy procedures around immigration.
• 23 August, 2025: The centre-right NSC is the second party to withdraw from the original four-party coalition. The caretaker cabinet is left with 32 seats, out of 150. 
• 29 October, 2025: Election day. Dutch voters will elect the members of the House of Representatives, consisting of 150 seats.
• After the elections: The party with the most votes gets to lead coalition negotiations. This process often takes months.
• Parties that want to form a government together create a coalition agreement, setting out what they want to achieve over the next four years.
• Usually, the biggest party provides the prime minister, although the last coalition saw a prime minister who was not tied to any party. Other ministers and state secretaries are picked from the different coalition parties.
• Once parties have formed a new cabinet, the king officially appoints all ministers and state secretaries.

Around one in five voters (19 percent) finds climate change one of the most important topics in these elections, whereas two years ago, that figure was 30 percent, according to an opinion panel carried out by the Dutch public television network EenVandaag.

Voters cite a broader range of concerns than in 2023, with defence and international politics rising in importance.

Environment: Nitrogen and nature permits

Nitrogen emissions in the Netherlands are among the highest in the world due to the country’s dense population, heavy traffic and intensive agriculture. Much of the focus is on nitrogen’s impact on land, water, and air. However, nitrogen also plays a role in accelerating climate change said researchers Jan Willem Erisman and Wim de Vries, working at Wageningen University and Leiden University.

Nitrogen that ends up in soil forms nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas three hundred times more potent than CO2. Nitrogen also helps to combat climate change, by for instance making forests grow faster and blocking solar heat, but eventually the net contribution of nitrogen emissions comes down to 10 percent of global warming, according to De Vries.

The so-called “nitrogen crisis” in the Netherlands kicked off in 2019 when the Dutch Council of State ruled that nitrogen reduction policies were inadequate and in violation of European rules. Much of the Dutch economy came to a standstill because permits for building work, such as new homes, barn extensions or road construction, were only granted if it could be proven that protected nature areas would not suffer.

Six years on, it is still very difficult for new projects to obtain permits, which has led to dike reinforcements being postponed.

It is difficult to assess the effectiveness of current nitrogen policies, as the minister of agriculture Femke Wiersma from the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB), suspended requests for information about emissions from livestock farms, although it is legally stipulated that this information must be disclosed. The agricultural sector is responsible for three quarters of nitrogen precipitation in nature.

Three media organisations sued the minister, and the court ruled that she had “abused her powers” by withholding the information. Wiersma appealed against the decision, but lost at the Netherlands' highest administrative court. Follow the Money, one of the plaintiffs, has reported that the minister is still refusing to decide whether to release some of the numbers.

Nine days before the new elections, the caretaker cabinet – which currently consists of only two of the original four parties including the BBB – agreed to increase the nitrogen deposition limit by a factor of 200, allowing higher emissions. By the end of this year, a decision will be made on whether the new standard can take effect in 2026, though it likely lacks legal footing.

The next coalition must agree how to resolve the nitrogen crisis and which sectors to prioritise.

Agriculture: A lot of farming in a small country

The Netherlands is the second-largest exporter of agricultural products in the world after the United States. About half of its surface area is used for agricultural purposes. The sector accounts for 15 percent of carbon emissions and 45 percent of total nitrogen deposition. Pollution from agriculture also has negative impacts on biodiversity and water quality, with the Netherlands having the worst water quality of all EU member states. How to reform agriculture is a polarising issue and led to large, sometimes aggressive, protests by farmers.

The problems surrounding agriculture emissions have long been known, but the government has often delayed taking decisive action. For many years, banks encouraged farmers to expand their businesses with loans. The Dutch nitrogen crisis in 2019 sparked a debate around the size of farms and number of livestock, discouraging this long-promoted expansion.

Other hot potato issues around agriculture are whether government buyouts of farms should be compulsory, the number of livestock, and the limiting of mega farms.

Finance: Fossil fuel subsidies

Fossil fuel subsidies dominated the climate debate in the Netherlands at the 2023 election, after Extinction Rebellion organised several protests around the topic, including the blockage of a highway in The Hague for 27 consecutive days. Although the previous government promised to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, the outgoing cabinet has agreed that this will only happen at EU level.

Furthermore, a fossil fuel subsidy scheme for industry was reintroduced. The scheme allows companies to receive subsidies for high electricity bills due to the carbon price in the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), benefitting producers of aluminium, steel, fertiliser, paper and plastics. The regulation has been criticised for blunting the incentive to cut CO2.

There were years of scrambling over the exact amount of fossil fuel subsidies: In 2020, the government came up with a figure of 4.5 billion euros a year, but after independent researchers and environmental groups came up with higher amounts, then climate minister Rob Jetten (D66) commissioned a report that showed that the Dutch government spends between 39.7 billion and 46.4 billion euros a year on schemes that lead to fossil benefits.

Extinction Rebellion has announced new protests to take place one day before the elections, demanding an end to fossil subsidies and new fossil projects.

Overseas fossil fuel subsidies: Backtracking on the Glasgow Statement

The Netherlands backtracked on its Glasgow COP26 promise to end support for international fossil fuel projects by the end of 2022. The government adopted a “transition period” which means projects requested in 2022 could still be approved later.

Besides this loophole, there are other exceptions including support for low-income countries, and broadly defined exemptions for projects that contribute to European supply security.

The Netherlands was among 39 countries and institutions that signed the Glasgow pledge during COP26 to end international fossil fuel subsidies. Eight countries broke that promise, including the Germany, Italy, Japan and the Netherlands – the United States withdrew. Complying countries include Canada, France and the United Kingdom.

Transport: To fly or not to fly?

The Netherlands is well known for being a bicycle-friendly country but is still struggling to decarbonise its transport sector, which is currently responsible for nearly a quarter of Dutch greenhouse gas emissions. The biggest culprit is aviation, but road and water transport have also barely decarbonised over the years.

From November, flights at Schiphol will be reduced by 4.4 percent, despite pushback from the European Commission and the American aviation sector. The main motivation for fewer flights is to reduce noise pollution for people living close to the airport.

The growth of Schiphol Group is not just a problem in Amsterdam. There is political disagreement over whether an airport in Lelystad should open for commercial flights to relieve Schiphol. This was supposed to happen in 2019, but was delayed due to nitrogen issues.

Currently, the airport is used for military goals and could station F35 strike fighters. The local municipalities and Schiphol Group have stated they only want the airport to be used for military purposes if commercial flights are also allowed.

Another transport transition debate is whether to introduce a kilometre charge, replacing fixed car taxes with per-kilometre pricing.

One of the areas which most parties do agree on is sustainable transport, with broad support for investments in public transport accessibility and bicycle infrastructure. Both D66 and Groenlinks-PvdA propose a nationwide ticket for public transport, similar to Germany’s flat-rate ticket.

Future technologies: Hydrogen and CCS

Hydrogen

For years, green hydrogen hopes were high, with the Netherlands aiming to be a European hub. In Rotterdam, construction began on a hydrogen network intended to link major industrial regions in the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany from 2030. But in 2024 it became clear that a key cross-border pipeline, the Delta Rhine Corridor, faces a four-year delay and is now expected to open in 2032.

Alongside Rotterdam, Groningen is another key location in the Dutch hydrogen strategy. The NorthH2 project, announced in 2020, foresees a 3–4 gigawatt offshore wind farm by 2030 to power green hydrogen production. The consortium behind it includes Shell, Equinor, RWE and Eneco. The first hydrogen is supposed to be produced in 2027.

One hydrogen initiative progressing is Shell’s large plant in the port of Rotterdam, expected to become one of the first major green hydrogen facilities owned by a Western company.

A main challenge for the sector remains cost. Green hydrogen is still too expensive to attract large-scale investment. Caretaker climate minister Sophie Hermans cited this as one reason for scaling back the Netherlands’ 2040 offshore wind target from 50 gigawatts to between 30 and 40 gigawatts.

CCS: Porthos and Aramis

In April 2025, the Dutch government vowed to invest 639 million euros into the Aramis carbon capture and storage (CCS) project after Shell and TotalEnergies withdrew from funding the pipeline infrastructure.A final investment decision is due in 2026, with operations expected by 2030.

Another CCS project, Porthos, was approved by the Council of State in 2023 despite concerns over the project’s burdensome nitrogen emissions. The project is expected to be in operation in 2026 and will transport and store CO2 from industry in empty gas fields below the North Sea. Porthos expects to store 2.5 megatonnes of CO2 under the sea every year, 1.5 percent of the Netherland's annual emissions. The Dutch state pledged two billion euros for the project and the EU declared it a Project of Common Interest, subsidising it with 102 million euros.

Porthos is the first CCS project in the Netherlands. A similar plan by Shell to store CO2 under Barendrecht, a municipality close to Rotterdam, was abandoned about a decade ago due to unrest among citizens.

No more Groningen gas: The future of natural gas extraction in the Netherlands

After 60 years, natural gas extraction at the Groningen gas field ended in April 2024. It was one of the biggest European gas fields and of the most densely populated extraction areas in the world. It has been a source of controversy due to induced earthquakes and damage to houses. “The interests of the people of Groningen were structurally ignored during gas extraction,” stated a parliamentary inquiry that came out in February 2023. The number of damage claims from citizens increased over the years, but the handling of the claims and the repair and reinforcement of houses were often met with red tape, reluctance, and slow bureaucratic processes.

Groningen gas is exploited by the Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij (NAM), in a public-private partnership formed in 1963, in which the state works with oil giants Shell and ExxonMobil in a so-called 'silent partnership'. While the NAM was originally responsible for handling citizen’s damage claims, the government was put in charge in 2018.

Since the closure, extraction continues from smaller fields onshore and in the North Sea and the Wadden Sea.

This has prompted protests. In September, protesters in Germany and the Netherlands opposed drilling in the Wadden Sea, citing damage to the UNESCO World Heritage Site.

Caretaker climate minister Sophie Hermans (VVD) argued there could be more room for gas extraction in the area, under the so-called “hand-on-the-tap” principle, which requires production to stop once an agreed ground subsidence limit is reached.

This method does not always work, as was proven when in August 2024, the Dutch mining authority ordered an immediate halt to gas production at the Wadden island Oost-Ameland after the ground had sunk 42 centimetres, breaching the legal limit of 40 cm. Subsidence continues for decades even after extraction stops, showing the “hand-on-the-tap” system acts too late to prevent damage.

NAM has contested the shutdown, and the government has not ruled out restarting production.

Nuclear energy: New reactors?

The caretaker climate minister, Sophie Hermans (VVD), plans to establish a state-owned company within the next few months to construct and subsequently manage new nuclear power plants, as no private companies are willing to invest. Currently, the Netherlands has one operational nuclear power plant.

Since the last elections in 2023 nuclear energy gained a lot of popularity among almost all political parties, except GroenLinks-PvdA, which is a big turning point from a decade ago, as reported by public broadcaster NOS. But popularity does not guarantee feasibility. Financing is a major stumbling block, and parties advocating nuclear have reduced their spending commitments in debates and calculations. D66 heavily campaigned on nuclear in 2023, but now says it “remains open to alternatives such as nuclear” to cover green-energy limits.

When reporting on the Dutch elections, these are key contacts for your research.

Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB)
The CPB is an independent government agency conducting policy research.

Contact: https://www.cpb.nl/voor-de-pers

Press contact: Noortje Beckers
Email: N.M.Beckers@cpb.nl 
Call: +31 88 9846284

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)

The national institute for strategic policy analysis in the fields of the environment, nature and spatial planning

Contact: https://www.pbl.nl/en/about-pbl/contact

Press contact: Gerald Schut
Email: gerald.schut@pbl.nl
Call: +31611723310
Topics: climate, air, energy, circular economy

Press contact: Mieke Berkers
Email: mieke.berkers@pbl.nl
Call:+316 25068171
Topics: agriculture, food, water, nature, rural areas

Press contact: Laura Westendorp
Email: laura.westendorp@pbl.nl
Call: +31625052271
Topics: urbanisation, transport, spatial planning, quality of the local environment

Extinction Rebellion Netherlands

Local branch of Extinction Rebellion, an environmental action group

Contact: https://extinctionrebellion.nl/pers-en-nieuws/
Email: media@extinctionrebellion.nl
Call: +31 6 481 70 971 or +31 6 346 30 114

Jan WillemErisman

Professor of Environmental Sustainability within the Institute of Environmental Sciences of Leiden University with expertise on nitrogen issues

Contact: https://www.universiteitleiden.nl/en/staffmembers/jan-willem-erisman#tab-1
Email: j.w.erisman@cml.leidenuniv.nl
Call: +31 71 527 7484

Jesse Hettema

Head of Netherlands and Belgium, Aurora Energy Research

Email: aurora-press@auroraer.com

Rene Peters

Business Director Gas Technology Dutch Organization for Applied Scientific Research (TNO)

Contact: https://www.tno.nl/en/about-tno/our-people/rene-peters/
Call: +31 88 866 63 40

Sarah de Lange

Professor of Dutch Politics at the Institute for Political Science at Leiden University

Contact: https://www.universiteitleiden.nl/en/staffmembers/sarah-de-lange#tab-1
Email: s.l.de.lange@fsw.leidenuniv.nl
Call: 071 5272727

Willy Baltussen

Agricultural economist working for over 35 years at Wageningen Economic Research. He has a wide knowledge of farm economics, livestock production, agricultural supply chains and their organisation

Contact: https//www.wur.nl/en/persons/willy-ir.-whm-willy-baltussen.htm
Call: +31703358171