German 2030 climate target only achievable with 'course correction' – consultancy

Germany’s 2030 emissions targets can only be achieved if the country "substantially" changes track and carries out "enormous efforts" to electrify its industry, transport and heating sectors, consultancy McKinsey found in its bi-annual Energiewende Index. Even though emissions in 2020 will likely be much lower than expected due to the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak, long-term challenges will by no means be addressed by current developments. The index says that 6 out of 15 key energy transition targets are currently not realistically achievable. As well as better integration of renewable energy sources in the heating and transport sectors, Germany should make progress on its stalled grid expansion.

The goal of reaching 30 percent renewables in gross final energy consumption by the end of the decade can only be attained if the expansion of solar and wind power is rapidly scaled up again and rises twice as quickly as it has so far. The consultancy also says that in order to reach the goal of 27 percent renewables in heating, the roll-out will have to happen eight times faster than the rate over the past ten years. McKinsey argues that grid expansion is far behind schedule and that factual construction will only start to realign with planning by 2025. In that year alone, however, over 2,200 kilometres of power lines will need to be constructed at once: a "mammoth task," the consultancy concludes. The annual reduction of primary energy consumption will have to be 60 percent higher than current rates.