Grid planning requires realistic assumptions on prosumer behaviour and weather – operator

Current planning for electricity grid development in Europe and Germany may underestimate infrastructure and flexibility needs as it uses simplified weather assumptions and idealised prosumer behaviour, said a report by transmission network operator TransnetBW.

“Planning with weather-averages is no longer enough,” said the company. The report showed that wind and solar output can vary by up to 15 percent year on year, meaning the “planning of climate-neutral systems must include weather variability and climate change impact, not just historical averages.”

In addition, current planning assumed idealised implementation and use of prosumer technologies like e-mobility, decentralised heating and home-batteries, the report found. Germany, for instance would need a higher capacity of additional hydrogen power plants and energy storage, should reality not meet the idealised planning scenario. TransnetBW called for a diverse mix of energy technologies and cooperation with neighbouring countries, as it would offer resilience in dealing with year-to-year weather variations and security against behavioural unpredictability in an energy system with high consumer participation rates.

As renewables reshape electricity systems, it is ever more important to further integrate European electricity markets to strengthen supply security, ensure affordability and advance sustainability. To make the most of such a system, consumers should participate in the market, for example by storing energy in their EVs and providing it to the system at times of need, or by using electricity at times of abundance. Dynamic electricity tariffs allow households to save money by shifting power consumption to sunny or windy periods, when plentiful renewable energy generation pushes wholesale prices down.